UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0603f7bc39e00c90b7b9b132d54f35618b4e2692f4702c29874c3af7952536c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 18,501$9,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,100.8 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 49c | 16,896$8,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,277.41 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9e27backed Under | 52c | 1,233$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 50c | 1,101$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.65 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 51c | 853.17$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.72 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8d…45a3backed Over | 51c | 383.45$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 50c | 382.12$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.06 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Over | 50c | 268.46$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 227.68$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 52c | 192.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 46c | 180.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Under | 53c | 153.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 45c | 142.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 48c | 135.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…9c8dbacked Over | 43c | 131.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Over | 50c | 100.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…6980backed Over | 53c | 94.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 50c | 89.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Under | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 48c | 68.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 53c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 50c | 65.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Under | 52c | 55.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Over | 48c | 44.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ce0fbacked Under | 51c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Over | 50c | 36.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Under | 53c | 34.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 51c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…8e4abacked Over | 48c | 28.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 50c | 25.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 50c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed Over | 50c | 21.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 50c | 20.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)Juan Diaz won
- Will Malcolm Wellmaker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.