UFC · resolved market
Will Malcolm Wellmaker win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd48659b112b4b10e083b7cebfa18605d8f9c9702c3415f5e3b08275d224ca4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0825…72b1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 56c | 1,359$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.12 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes | 49c | 573.91$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 54c | 405.26$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 45c | 164.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 54c | 91.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 385 | 53.2%205 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…18fdbacked Yes | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5606…7102backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a04…2071backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…a433backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Malcolm Wellmaker win by KO or TKO?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)Juan Diaz won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.