TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Spurs, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,006,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,003,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,006,437 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 715 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Spurs52c508,903$263,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263,711.1169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Knicks48c350,451$167,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183,004.3372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Knicks48c330,321$158,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171,767.018148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Knicks48c190,123$91,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,864.145154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Spurs52c120,000$62,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,40017251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Spurs52c106,761$55,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,515.939945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Spurs51c85,000$43,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,599.911,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Knicks47c77,539$36,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,095.8326753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Spurs52c72,787$37,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,853.0764948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Knicks49c62,222$30,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,955.3714538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Knicks44c56,673$25,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,474.3856646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Knicks48c50,000$24,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,00043148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Spurs51c41,000$20,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,882.5810248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs51c40,039$20,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,422.5118651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa25c…6430backed Spurs64c36,417$23,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,477.9130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Knicks49c31,052$15,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,836.431471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+46.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Knicks48c27,885$13,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,500.1132653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e86…ba91backed Spurs52c24,000$12,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,479.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4852…67c4backed Knicks49c20,729$10,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,571.575655.4%31 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Spurs51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,199.9911333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Spurs51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,199.818151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf751…fec8backed Spurs52c18,964$9,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,861.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Knicks49c17,821$8,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,107.3463746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e3…48acbacked Spurs51c16,436$8,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,380.3614746.9%69 W · 78 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe467…d3ebbacked Knicks48c16,355$7,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,504.58771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Spurs48c13,334$6,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,466.452150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Spurs52c12,535$6,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,515.532,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs51c12,315$6,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,331.184,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Spurs51c12,222$6,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,233.224734%16 W · 31 L-6.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Spurs52c11,538$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0009725.8%25 W · 72 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Knicks49c10,719$5,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,466.6820155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Spurs52c10,665$5,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,545.8722036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Knicks49c10,204$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,204.0811654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b01…5c12backed Knicks48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,200425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Spurs52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0006144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Knicks47c9,243$4,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,887.621,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd33a…2cc4backed Spurs53c9,207$4,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,879.53441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Spurs52c8,688$4,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,477.7925352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Spurs53c8,307$4,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,402.4811447.4%54 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x323b…28f3backed Knicks49c8,298$4,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,231.963100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Knicks54c8,000$4,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,665.5228056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03c5…1073backed Knicks49c7,992$3,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,075.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe16e…c3c7backed Spurs51c7,839$3,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,997.792330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs26c7,761$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.228,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Knicks51c7,569$3,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,687.442,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Knicks48c7,500$3,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,875.0343438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Knicks48c7,291$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,791.311,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Knicks48c7,270$3,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,757.6186641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Spurs52c7,157$3,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,721.5510747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Knicks49c7,000$3,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,57015247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Knicks49c6,735$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,434.692157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Knicks48c6,500$3,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,357.3965939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Knicks49c6,200$3,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1623056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Spurs46c6,142$2,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,804.5155251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Knicks48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.9979549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Spurs49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.843352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Knicks48c5,808$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,020.1615850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Spurs51c5,678$2,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,895.785940.7%24 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa511…18a3backed Spurs53c5,660$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick66cpaid-46.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Knicks49c5,644$2,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,880.4427251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs51c5,629$2,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,898.5685742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45bf…54e6backed Spurs52c5,610$2,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,917.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Knicks48c5,218$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,713.532045%9 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Knicks49c5,102$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.0490650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e9c…1fcabacked Knicks41c4,844$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,843.981952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Spurs66c4,787$3,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,166.051,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd616…55aabacked Spurs66c4,519$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Spurs52c4,300$2,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,23612056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Spurs51c4,084$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.843043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf78…ae9ebacked Knicks48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe214…fcbabacked Spurs51c3,788$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.722055%11 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked Knicks49c3,670$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.751060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Knicks51c3,569$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.634050%20 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1491…11d3backed Spurs51c3,410$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,751.11618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-68.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Spurs53c3,277$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick58cpaid-79.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xea3d…524dbacked Knicks49c3,100$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5811163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Spurs50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010049%49 W · 51 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Knicks48c3,000$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.0968944%303 W · 386 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Knicks51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4707950.6%40 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Spurs48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1514…26e7backed Spurs51c2,880$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.91650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Knicks48c2,714$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.253951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b8…90e2backed Spurs49c2,643$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Knicks48c2,601$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.092,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Spurs52c2,558$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.9729243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Spurs52c2,558$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33017247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked Spurs53c2,500$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32511939.5%47 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x477e…f63ebacked Spurs51c2,440$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Knicks45c2,400$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.1212451.6%64 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Spurs52c2,400$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2488242.7%35 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eda…c3b7backed Spurs51c2,312$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Spurs52c2,172$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.4437355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e86…cb8fbacked Knicks48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.331747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa017…d946backed Knicks49c2,045$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+137.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Knicks49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8262948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Knicks49c2,011$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.4236051.7%186 W · 174 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Knicks48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04025651.2%131 W · 125 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Spurs52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0409747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Spurs51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0207143.7%31 W · 40 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-19.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Knicks49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0201968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 84. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.