TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,798
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,798 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd696…8a49backed Yes47c4,522$2,143 inLost-$2,143.271,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No51c4,444$2,266 inWon+$2,177.559348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked No56c3,021$1,692 inWon+$1,329.420155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Yes49c1,465$718 inLost-$717.5136954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked Yes44c1,000$440 inLost-$4406147.5%29 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed No54c499.99$270 inWon+$23078445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes46c499.99$230 inLost-$23095651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes44c449.03$197 inLost-$197.4133049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a12…cba0backed Yes50c397.22$200 inLost-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No51c268.68$137 inWon+$131.918235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No50c250$125 inWon+$12585449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No51c229.99$117 inWon+$112.6956050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes46c220$101 inLost-$101.278652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3190…93bbbacked No54c220$119 inWon+$101.21631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes49c204.49$100 inLost-$10017758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Yes49c153.06$75 inLost-$7515846.8%74 W · 84 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Yes44c99.99$44 inLost-$43.9911852.5%62 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a0c…14cebacked No52c94.73$49 inWon+$45.522050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83b…dc66backed Yes48c62.04$30 inLost-$303638.9%14 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8687…1db0backed No56c60.95$34 inWon+$26.828835.2%31 W · 57 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4388…9ce4backed No56c50.66$28 inWon+$22.4519952.3%104 W · 95 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4480…8c0ebacked No57c49.14$28 inWon+$21.1410351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb0d…ca42backed Yes49c40.82$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e53…922dbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost-$204254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No52c39.99$21 inWon+$19.1996956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa10…065abacked Yes48c31.82$15 inLost-$15.193354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No52c31.65$16 inWon+$15.1933356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc78b…5c76backed Yes48c31.08$15 inLost-$155736.8%21 W · 36 L-9.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-30.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes44c30$13 inLost-$13.254549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No52c29.99$16 inWon+$14.433556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa241…67a6backed Yes49c29.94$15 inLost-$14.67911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.38per pick49cpaid-80.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdb94…a015backed No49c29.63$15 inWon+$15.114360.5%26 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+41.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes50c28.48$14 inLost-$14.337437.8%28 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4078…7d91backed Yes48c27.08$13 inLost-$135540%22 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Yes42c24.17$10 inLost-$10.151,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92e…d539backed No55c22.86$12 inWon+$10.362766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+51.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 84. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.