TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,337 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over57c3,800$2,150 inLost-$2,149.728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under32c2,000$640 inWon+$1,360.321,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under36c1,948$706 inWon+$1,241.5655251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under46c1,000$460 inWon+$5402,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over58c628$367 inLost-$367.1493148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under52c500$261 inWon+$238.81,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f2…7830backed Over64c320.75$207 inLost-$206.621931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.24per pick56cpaid-49.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under35c300$105 inWon+$195.171,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over63c285.64$180 inLost-$180.231,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Under27c274.49$74 inWon+$200.3818235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…ca37backed Over69c227.84$157 inLost-$1573043.3%13 W · 17 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under41c207.98$84 inWon+$123.6825045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under48c206.73$100 inWon+$106.4832654.6%178 W · 148 L+22.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over54c188.09$101 inLost-$101.3860250.5%304 W · 298 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Under18c180.72$33 inWon+$147.39956.6%56 W · 43 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Over47c171.62$81 inLost-$80.666636.4%24 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over52c154.69$80 inLost-$80.042,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4419…19d7backed Under73c136.54$100 inWon+$36.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under15c120$18 inWon+$10225954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under32c114$36 inWon+$77.6819548.2%94 W · 101 L+12.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Over15c92$14 inLost-$13.833030.9%102 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Under47c73.09$34 inWon+$38.6315044.7%67 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe24f…614abacked Under16c62.5$10 inWon+$52.5580%4 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick28cpaid+312.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over53c60.39$32 inLost-$32.0152861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Under34c51.5$18 inWon+$33.9929458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Over62c46.94$29 inLost-$28.8814359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Under32c39.59$12 inWon+$27.1237652.4%197 W · 179 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55da…74efbacked Over52c38.35$20 inLost-$203259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Under34c34.52$12 inWon+$22.8831953%169 W · 150 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24b9…f36ebacked Under63c30.52$19 inWon+$11.421546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Under52c29.99$16 inWon+$14.471752%373 W · 344 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over66c29$19 inLost-$19.1476653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Under37c26.88$10 inWon+$16.884736.2%17 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Under50c22.96$11 inWon+$11.4831222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Over55c19.71$11 inLost-$10.7530616.7%51 W · 255 L-36.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-37.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5cb2…82e5backed Over66c16.85$11 inLost-$11.092040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Over66c16.66$11 inLost-$1114139%55 W · 86 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 84. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.