TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,790
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,790 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc308…7b09backed Over0c20,279$26 inLost-$25.5731222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under60c1,356$810 inWon+$545.896,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over13c1,024$129 inLost-$128.781,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Over51c1,000$510 inLost-$51017637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over15c987.3$149 inLost-$148.698,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over38c888.59$338 inLost-$337.966352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6303…9556backed Under61c769.39$470 inWon+$299.3918853.2%100 W · 88 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Under62c485.49$300 inWon+$185.4933749.3%166 W · 171 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Under69c315.47$219 inWon+$96.3818235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1292…e678backed Under80c308$246 inWon+$61.618144.2%80 W · 101 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under60c240.99$145 inWon+$96.41,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaaf…20c0backed Under60c167.88$100 inWon+$67.883151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Under60c126.21$76 inWon+$50.486258.1%36 W · 26 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over33c111.7$37 inLost-$36.8684342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over43c108.47$47 inLost-$46.6432654.6%178 W · 148 L+22.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed Under60c100$60 inWon+$4021243.9%93 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over45c89.47$41 inLost-$40.535152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Over16c66.19$11 inLost-$10.8831953%169 W · 150 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Over43c58.14$25 inLost-$2540548.4%196 W · 209 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Under49c54$26 inWon+$27.543946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6e…6dc3backed Under62c48.39$30 inWon+$18.391861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Over43c46.51$20 inLost-$209748.5%47 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over41c43.9$18 inLost-$1855444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Over40c37.2$15 inLost-$14.887437.8%28 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under55c33.6$18 inWon+$15.1252150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over40c33.39$13 inLost-$13.4910757%61 W · 46 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over42c31.21$13 inLost-$13.1112146.3%56 W · 65 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2358…8986backed Under62c30$19 inWon+$11.41376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+26.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over41c29.31$12 inLost-$12.0964948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x26e8…1c01backed Under61c25.7$16 inWon+$10.027451.4%38 W · 36 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6d8…be72backed Over40c25$10 inLost-$101540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under59c22.73$13 inWon+$9.2719959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under62c17.98$11 inWon+$6.835952.5%31 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 84. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.