TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7200…9299

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
714
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 60 out of 100; worst NHL at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT36954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 369 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$4,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,499.97
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$10.75
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+117.7%+$104.31
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$35.25
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+142.2%+$48.04
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$97.53
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.79
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,151Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$799.62
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$43,095Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$43,095.01
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$82.99
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$718Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$717.51
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.4
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,810Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$1,076.63
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,375Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,374.89
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$618Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$617.99
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$61,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$61,500
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$28
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$611Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+63.7%+$389
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39,773Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10,572.64
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+99.1%+$222.4
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.87
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+108%+$15.21
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 2.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+95.7%+$25.79
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$4,300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$5,700
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.59
Showing 25 of 369 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT16946.2%78 W · 91 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 169 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Declan Rice: 2+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$613Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+71.2%+$436.35
Michael Olise: 2+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+107.3%+$34
Michael Olise: 1+ assistsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+372.8%+$46.37
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assistsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.63
Morgan Rogers: 1+ assistsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.98
Noni Madueke: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.75
Eberechi Eze: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.2
Michael Olise: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.47
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$482.97
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.17
Jordan Pickford: 4+ savesbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$95.38
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$375.63
England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$667Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$182.75
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$77.22
Lamine Yamal: 4+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$433Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$433.39
Michael Olise: 1+ assistsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+42.3%+$71
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.69
Breel Embolo: 2+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.9
Granit Xhaka: 2+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.68
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assistsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.77
Leandro Paredes: 1+ assistsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.92
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$122.76
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,171.99
Argentina vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+81.9%+$65.3
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.12
Showing 25 of 169 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT5251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$31.05
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+89.6%+$55.3
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,940Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,940.17
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.07
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York Metsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$24.96
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Metsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$6,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,549.61
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.94
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangersbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+154.6%+$23.9
Trent Grisham: Home Runs O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,020Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$340
Ben Rice: Home Runs O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$805Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$345
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+100%+$112.5
San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royalsbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$70.49
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.57
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)backed Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.74
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.75
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$103.88
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.08
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlinsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+110.9%+$32.64
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)backed Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$37.26
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+84.5%+$13.53
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$29.14
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)backed Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$18.36
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$14.7
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Metsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$822Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+97.3%+$800.27
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT3531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-30.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NHL — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+89.2%+$24.47
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,999.97
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$21,802Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$21,802.34
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$683Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$292.53
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$1,522.06
Avalanche vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$807Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$873.88
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,660Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,660.08
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$1,799.98
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,950Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$3,050
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$892Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$892.05
Ducks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,999.98
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,037Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,037.02
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,245Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$2,744.49
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,749.98
Golden Knights vs. Ducksbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,614Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+100%+$1,614.05
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,474Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,473.62
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,438Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,438.4
AHL: Henderson Silver Knights vs. Calgary Wranglersbacked Calgary Wranglers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.8
Spread: Utah (-1.5)backed Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.84
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)backed Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.69
AHL: Hartford Wolf Pack vs. Providence Bruinsbacked Hartford Wolf Pack · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.4
AHL: Milwaukee Admirals vs. Grand Rapids Griffinsbacked Milwaukee Admirals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$477.93
Spread: Devils (-1.5)backed Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+203%+$104.04
SHL: Froelunda HC vs. Djurgaardenbacked Froelunda HC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.35
AHL: Henderson Silver Knights vs. Tucson Roadrunnersbacked Tucson Roadrunners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.81
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT2356.5%13 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+61.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$220.27
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$347.26
Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs. Texas Southern Tigersbacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$56.5
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Miami (OH) RedHawksbacked Massachusetts Minutemen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+300%+$297.76
Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. UMBC Retrieversbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.5
North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs. North Dakota State Bison: O/U 145.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$34.25
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Maryland Terrapins: O/U 146.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+147.3%+$104.45
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. UNCW Seahawksbacked Campbell Fighting Camels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+279.9%+$734.08
Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcatsbacked Kentucky Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$16.49
Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanesbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$473Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+122.2%+$578.18
Stonehill Skyhawks vs. Mercyhurst Lakersbacked Stonehill Skyhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$277.54
Indiana State Sycamores vs. Valparaiso Beacons: O/U 136.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$67.38
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensbacked Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+270.4%+$43.93
Drake Bulldogs vs. Southern Illinois Salukis: O/U 136.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$94.99
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. George Washington Revolutionaries: O/U 157.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$73.81
UMBC Retrievers vs. NJIT Highlanders: O/U 141.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$614Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+137.9%+$846.84
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 145.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+104.2%+$196.16
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 144.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+104.1%+$14.76
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinalsbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$103.96
Norfolk State Spartans vs. Morgan State Bears: O/U 154.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$62.69
Spread: Navy Midshipmen (-6.5)backed Colgate Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$857Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$856.93
Maine Black Bears vs. Binghamton Bearcatsbacked Binghamton Bearcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+108.2%+$64.06
Clemson Tigers vs. California Golden Bears (W)backed California Golden Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$36.49
All 23 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT2250%11 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cancun: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Moez Echarguibacked Moez Echargui · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$146.4
Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejiabacked Marco Trungelliti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$6,125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,125.33
Grabher vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+77.1%+$26.24
Jacquet vs. Daniel: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+78%+$22.02
Set Handicap: Ribera (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5)backed Kraus · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$16.54
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenkobacked Tatjana Maria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$125.4
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmezbacked Jelena Ostapenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$7,852Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$4,706.39
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Sho Shimabukuro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$46.33
Austin: Dalma Galfi vs Lanlana Tararudeebacked Dalma Galfi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.66
Austin: Solana Sierra vs Bianca Andreescubacked Solana Sierra · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$379.58
Antalya 3: Katarzyna Kawa vs Despina Papamichailbacked Despina Papamichail · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.98
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Tommy Paulbacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$62.54
BNP Paribas Open: Camila Osorio vs Naomi Osakabacked Camila Osorio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.68
BNP Paribas Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Taylor Townsendbacked Taylor Townsend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.09
BNP Paribas Open: Elise Mertens vs Cristina Bucsabacked Cristina Bucsa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$220.26
BNP Paribas Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Kamilla Rakhimovabacked Bianca Andreescu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$12.85
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Chun-Hsin Tsengbacked Chun-Hsin Tseng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+150%+$24.2
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Dane Sweenybacked Dane Sweeny · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$24.92
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Joanna Garland vs Taylor Townsendbacked Taylor Townsend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,001Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+49.2%+$492.39
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Rebeka Masarovabacked Rebeka Masarova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$254.82
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Maria Lourdes Carlebacked Kamilla Rakhimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+33.4%+$47.07
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Whitney Osuigwebacked Whitney Osuigwe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$156.47
All 22 picks, newest first.
WNBAlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT1573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+46%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
WNBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynxbacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+196.4%+$146.85
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Skybacked Chicago Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+207.6%+$158.95
Caitlin Clark: Points O/U 24.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$165.65
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 173.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.71
Connecticut Sun vs. Dallas Wingsbacked Dallas Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$10.57
Spread: Dallas Wings (-11.5)backed Dallas Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$237.06
Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynxbacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$77.03
Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5)backed Los Angeles Sparks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$96.25
PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Acesbacked Las Vegas Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercurybacked Indiana Fever · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$9.38
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5)backed Los Angeles Sparks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+92.2%+$56.96
Dallas Wings vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 182.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,635Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,634.92
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Feverbacked Indiana Fever · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-14.5)backed Connecticut Sun · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.22
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 158.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$14.4
All 15 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Ludovit Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Tofiq Musayev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$37.45
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$29.98
UFC Fight Night: Alberto Montes vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Alberto Montes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.21
O/U 0.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$83.76
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$479Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+104.5%+$500.28
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Mitch Raposo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+150%+$319.21
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.16
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+84.4%+$13.02
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$17.93
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$227.82
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFLlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+40.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricketlast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Cricket — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bangladesh win?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.91
Will Australia win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$21,144Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21,143.96
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Sussexbacked Surrey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$125.44
All 3 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharksbacked Zhejiang Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,146Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+79%+$905.14
Joventut vs. Barcelonabacked Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffsbacked Bushido Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$9.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffsbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$16.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.