MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eef2866dff0dc49b4cbf9e73b707e340bd9ade3a465af3dddafd415c273eb96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked No | 66c | 40,488$26,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,674.43 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Yes | 33c | 16,178$5,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,804.99 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 34c | 6,909$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,548.78 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Yes | 36c | 4,588$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,936.1 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 37c | 3,587$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.68 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…a68fbacked No | 64c | 3,538$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,264.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x928b…ccf4backed Yes | 33c | 3,388$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,269.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 37c | 3,178$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.14 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 60c | 2,615$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.1 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 39c | 2,526$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.37 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 34c | 2,025$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.73 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,898$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.97 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,800$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.05 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 34c | 1,595$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 35c | 978$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 62c | 656$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.43 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 519.19$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.14 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…b4a5backed No | 65c | 441.75$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 206 | 57.8%119 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed No | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed No | 64c | 382$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.48 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 37c | 377$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.85 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 34c | 374.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.08 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 39c | 287.49$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.37 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Yes | 35c | 286$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.9 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Yes | 40c | 276.77$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.77 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…40a6backed Yes | 37c | 225$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.27 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 179.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 36c | 167.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.51 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Yes | 36c | 155.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…b1c7backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 65c | 133.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d01…5e59backed No | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 79c | 123.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed Yes | 39c | 109.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed No | 64c | 90.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…f614backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked No | 63c | 47.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…fab0backed No | 64c | 38.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…089dbacked No | 64c | 38.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 37c | 38.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…a269backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…6c3abacked No | 64c | 30.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…3ef1backed No | 64c | 26.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…0ea7backed No | 64c | 21.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be5…e3cabacked No | 62c | 18.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…c966backed No | 66c | 18.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewersthis page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.