MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e9a0a609981147c4ab8c55387d9c1111bb7dbd47166908778603f40b78c82f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 66c | 25,353$16,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,732.3 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 16,070$5,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,506.36 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 36c | 11,460$4,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,328.79 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.98 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 57c | 2,234$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.38 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 1,757$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.11 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Under | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 350 | 56%196 W · 154 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 59c | 1,111$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.49 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 58c | 849.75$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.85 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 33c | 844.76$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.82 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 57c | 726.28$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.07 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 44c | 572.43$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.56 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 467.34$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.44 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 43c | 432.8$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.74 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 43c | 416.88$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.62 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 362.68$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.31 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Over | 66c | 325.98$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 62c | 295.18$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.19 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 239.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d68…d64cbacked Under | 58c | 238.1$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 204.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 173.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 58c | 133.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 120.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 39c | 110.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 42c | 109.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 54c | 108.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 39c | 105.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 97.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 58c | 91.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 31c | 82.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 146 | 44.5%65 W · 81 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 74.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 57c | 68.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 68.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Over | 39c | 64.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 54c | 57.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 49c | 56.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 55.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 58c | 51.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 29c | 48.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Over | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 58c | 44.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 43c | 39.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 37c | 37.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…b898backed Under | 60c | 36.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 56c | 36.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Over | 42c | 35.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 51c | 33.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 32.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 44c | 30.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 56c | 24.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Under | 43c | 23.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Over | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…1dcdbacked Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…e67fbacked Under | 66c | 15.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.