MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd61f5c5c5dc61a4386a6d9822c9cf182d80ef21ade2c7b8f343298c190f9f960
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 43c | 2,276$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.23 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Under | 60c | 1,280$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.7 | 282 | 58.5%165 W · 117 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 1,039$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.36 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 1,039$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.27 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 991.46$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.61 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 909$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.4 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 39c | 489.16$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.77 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 375.7$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.18 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 54c | 336.02$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.96 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 53c | 266.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 44c | 146$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 134.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Over | 61c | 133$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 82 | 64.6%53 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Over | 39c | 128$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 39c | 123$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 43c | 97.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Over | 40c | 97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 43c | 96.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 43c | 90.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 45c | 86.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…91f7backed Over | 45c | 86.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 72.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 32c | 60.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 43c | 45.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 46c | 38.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 59c | 34.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 44c | 30.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 42c | 29.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 43c | 29.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 50c | 24.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.