MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c54bb490d1d64088314e69a57b86931311292f1bd6d8652f2456c25ff2b0d40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed No | 58c | 4,510$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 42c | 4,313$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74a…25a2backed Yes | 45c | 428.5$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 55c | 424.79$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e66…bbd2backed No | 58c | 421.91$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed No | 58c | 225$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 212.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Yes | 43c | 202.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 58c | 197$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 41c | 109.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 45c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 45c | 78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 624 | 54.2%338 W · 286 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 58c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 40c | 70.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 63c | 58.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Yes | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yes | 45c | 40.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Yes | 45c | 34.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giantsthis page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.