MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e8520683434e7d0d71ac069649403f9ebd323787a00bd0ba385c46e55838489
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 3,069$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.22 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 61c | 2,538$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 39c | 2,263$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.43 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 1,963$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.7 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 61c | 1,814$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.54 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 1,194$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.96 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 44c | 1,141$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.83 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 765.77$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.17 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 758.79$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.86 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 51c | 503.92$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 119 | 62.2%74 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Over | 65c | 249.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 49c | 205.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 39c | 140.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 39c | 114$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…bedfbacked Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed Under | 65c | 94.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 35c | 68.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 61c | 67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 59c | 56.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Over | 71c | 52.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…6bb6backed Under | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 50c | 39.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Under | 35c | 34.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 62c | 34.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 58c | 32.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 32.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…1c6dbacked Under | 44c | 31.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 35c | 28.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 56c | 28.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 59c | 19.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.