MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ab7cc8613e8d0e151a6f8fede07b69b6a5ab58e1a6b4c5f579f73fef7275c0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 1,502$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 1,039$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 889.98$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.59 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 15c | 844.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 533.86$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.74 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 522$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 446$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.3 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 444.57$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.51 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a6…eeb0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 390$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Francisco Giants | 14c | 351.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 250$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 249.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 214.84$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.46 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…a377backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 211.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 166.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…65ffbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 141.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…e6a7backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 135$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 122.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 122.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 118.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 112.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 59.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 55.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…9c66backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 43.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 37.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…dfbdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 31.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 30.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 24.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 24.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 19.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.