TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Minnesota Lynxof Indiana Fever, Minnesota Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$261,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$284,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,049 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Indiana Fever21c20,434$4,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,332.5478548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2203…84e6backed Indiana Fever29c12,000$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.96185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-77.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ea7…7a4abacked Minnesota Lynx70c10,508$7,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Minnesota Lynx66c7,523$4,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.836750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Minnesota Lynx67c7,500$5,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4752646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Indiana Fever35c7,000$2,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,435.410338.8%40 W · 63 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Indiana Fever34c6,133$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.6640550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Minnesota Lynx65c6,037$3,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Minnesota Lynx66c6,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0408159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Indiana Fever33c5,869$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.9823245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever21c5,760$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.6499548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Indiana Fever34c4,931$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.847138%27 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Indiana Fever34c4,788$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.3426953.2%143 W · 126 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Indiana Fever12c4,712$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.6932150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Indiana Fever6c4,118$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.9634726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Lynx79c3,921$3,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.4255255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd21c…2afcbacked Indiana Fever32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Indiana Fever22c2,904$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.487740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Minnesota Lynx70c2,862$2,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.772065%13 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Minnesota Lynx65c2,699$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.964456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever16c2,603$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.461,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Indiana Fever33c2,482$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.5612144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Indiana Fever11c2,399$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4226147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Indiana Fever39c2,312$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.082669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Indiana Fever9c2,300$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19913024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6195…b9e3backed Minnesota Lynx66c2,250$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.691353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Indiana Fever13c1,752$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.8210340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Indiana Fever8c1,712$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.931043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Minnesota Lynx65c1,600$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56019446.4%90 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd3…0e24backed Indiana Fever15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-50.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x417d…f3c5backed Minnesota Lynx66c1,254$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.941764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Indiana Fever35c1,224$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.477236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Indiana Fever36c1,211$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.023444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Indiana Fever20c1,184$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.55020%10 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Indiana Fever15c1,149$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1758836.4%32 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Minnesota Lynx66c1,122$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.58850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Indiana Fever33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33032540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa89e…fb60backed Minnesota Lynx65c999.99$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Minnesota Lynx66c971.35$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.261457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa839…8b66backed Indiana Fever11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Minnesota Lynx66c792.67$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.5110463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Indiana Fever29c696.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1316633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Indiana Fever37c637.93$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.1137141.2%153 W · 218 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Indiana Fever35c637.45$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever29c627.04$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.351,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Indiana Fever22c600$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13113844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Indiana Fever34c599.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb96…d3fcbacked Minnesota Lynx67c597.01$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Indiana Fever31c595.22$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6519031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc820…49debacked Indiana Fever12c583.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Indiana Fever3c549.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2544915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe77…ef6cbacked Indiana Fever56c548.14$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Minnesota Lynx67c543.98$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.5174942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Minnesota Lynx69c540.09$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.66580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Minnesota Lynx65c500$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1772548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd09…42d9backed Minnesota Lynx68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1603259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed Minnesota Lynx77c446.48$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.692755.6%15 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Indiana Fever7c437$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3121446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Indiana Fever28c426.8$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9910538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…5cd4backed Indiana Fever21c401.4$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.431216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Indiana Fever12c399.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479214.1%13 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cab…f595backed Minnesota Lynx73c397.26$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.261553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed Indiana Fever8c380.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307638.2%29 W · 47 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+35.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Indiana Fever32c375$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.69938.4%38 W · 61 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Minnesota Lynx67c373$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0915746.5%73 W · 84 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4027…30b9backed Indiana Fever35c364.23$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.482339.1%9 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8653…2753backed Indiana Fever36c349.88$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Indiana Fever31c349.27$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1076643.9%29 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Minnesota Lynx66c334.85$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Indiana Fever9c325.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.33908.9%8 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7353…4b0dbacked Minnesota Lynx66c310$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.45752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ca9…4669backed Indiana Fever35c309.05$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Indiana Fever19c303.11$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2550646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Indiana Fever33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed Indiana Fever33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked Minnesota Lynx66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.03966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x103b…4f95backed Indiana Fever32c300.56$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe692…13a8backed Minnesota Lynx67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993850%19 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfe5…1c1cbacked Indiana Fever34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Minnesota Lynx74c287.6$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9219458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Indiana Fever12c264.04$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0334753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9709…52abbacked Indiana Fever12c260.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.32520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-73.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…667dbacked Minnesota Lynx77c260.67$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.052867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Lynx66c256$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0492248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8558…8615backed Minnesota Lynx78c246.01$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.132352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed Indiana Fever35c242.86$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Indiana Fever22c235.7$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.942766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Indiana Fever31c218.94$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8771245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Minnesota Lynx64c214.16$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.031573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+46%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bcb…06dbbacked Indiana Fever33c210.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3992…349cbacked Indiana Fever36c206.6$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757435.1%26 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Indiana Fever15c203.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4831847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Indiana Fever23c200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.97732.5%25 W · 52 L-9.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x24a6…1adcbacked Indiana Fever10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-35.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfd6…7275backed Indiana Fever16c193.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Minnesota Lynx79c191$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.347368.5%50 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c0b…c814backed Minnesota Lynx76c180$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.22951.7%15 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c5c…e316backed Minnesota Lynx45c177.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.721457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Lynx75c176.98$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0537650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24f3…cf28backed Indiana Fever10c166.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.