TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Minnesota Lynxof Minnesota Lynx, Indiana Fever
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,498
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,498 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Lynx49c8,843$4,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,535.5378548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Minnesota Lynx50c7,924$3,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,96236154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Indiana Fever50c7,767$3,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,864.952646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever49c7,224$3,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,508.111,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Lynx66c6,730$4,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.721,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8f3…7e0bbacked Indiana Fever48c5,000$2,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.921050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Minnesota Lynx51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.952958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Indiana Fever33c3,671$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.2736750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Indiana Fever50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Lynx51c2,196$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.6899548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Indiana Fever51c1,925$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.7513746%63 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bcf…c767backed Indiana Fever53c1,843$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.049140.7%37 W · 54 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Minnesota Lynx50c1,430$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71538650.3%194 W · 192 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa406…bd18backed Minnesota Lynx52c1,150$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.952352.2%12 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Minnesota Lynx52c1,110$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.81172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+57.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Indiana Fever32c1,006$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.3737141.2%153 W · 218 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0894…d819backed Minnesota Lynx58c977.27$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Indiana Fever47c940$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.813742.3%58 W · 79 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabe6…4797backed Minnesota Lynx50c799.98$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.991833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Indiana Fever36c799.95$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9913249.2%65 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc306…accdbacked Minnesota Lynx53c750$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.54456.8%25 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Indiana Fever51c615.99$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.161428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-42.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x987e…8d7abacked Indiana Fever49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x71bc…7fe4backed Indiana Fever51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014948.3%72 W · 77 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23585158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Minnesota Lynx50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+52.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed Minnesota Lynx50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2505554.5%30 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Indiana Fever61c496.05$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.5432540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Minnesota Lynx53c471.64$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.6715746.5%73 W · 84 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Indiana Fever46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1843748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+50.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe73…7d93backed Indiana Fever51c368.86$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.885242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…cfdabacked Minnesota Lynx49c366.47$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.9966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Indiana Fever67c353.81$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.2350952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Minnesota Lynx54c339$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9412355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Indiana Fever50c338.82$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.237138%27 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Minnesota Lynx30c330$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2311936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3992…349cbacked Indiana Fever49c308.59$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507435.1%26 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Minnesota Lynx48c299.61$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.829654.4%161 W · 135 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf8…bf62backed Indiana Fever52c265$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.81241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Minnesota Lynx49c262.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1217946.9%84 W · 95 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Minnesota Lynx71c250.39$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.428748.3%42 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc820…49debacked Indiana Fever44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Indiana Fever44c222.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.88836.4%32 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Indiana Fever50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008038.8%31 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa560…767dbacked Minnesota Lynx60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Indiana Fever29c199.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e4e…8413backed Indiana Fever52c192.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb78b…de1abacked Indiana Fever52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Minnesota Lynx77c192.21$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.648556.5%48 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Lynx71c190.8$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8689349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Indiana Fever51c182.28$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3723746.4%110 W · 127 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Indiana Fever33c181.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605836.2%21 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51da…a701backed Indiana Fever45c175.98$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8016153.4%86 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Indiana Fever53c160$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.83158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb418…8f46backed Minnesota Lynx54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Indiana Fever48c140.25$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3228647.9%137 W · 149 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4272…4a17backed Indiana Fever56c130.39$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.022948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5440…c640backed Indiana Fever48c110$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.81650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c7…d6babacked Indiana Fever46c107.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd3…0e24backed Indiana Fever56c107.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-50.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Minnesota Lynx50c105$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.516450%82 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Indiana Fever53c103$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5917350.3%87 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Lynx48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5239947.1%188 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Indiana Fever52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8537…b98bbacked Indiana Fever52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x987b…3d00backed Minnesota Lynx52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1513348.1%64 W · 69 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Minnesota Lynx50c96$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4828558.6%167 W · 118 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked Indiana Fever48c93.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458138.3%31 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Indiana Fever48c86.79$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.668045%36 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Lynx52c84.79$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.771245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Minnesota Lynx65c75.42$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.127945.6%36 W · 43 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever50c67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.574942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x088b…21ccbacked Minnesota Lynx55c65.71$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.57450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+258%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Minnesota Lynx46c62.19$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.581361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Minnesota Lynx51c60.18$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.488962.9%56 W · 33 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x589f…2fe4backed Minnesota Lynx50c59.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Indiana Fever47c51.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3332750.2%164 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Indiana Fever58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.887360.3%44 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Minnesota Lynx50c47.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5913850.7%70 W · 68 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Indiana Fever49c42.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5115453.2%82 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Indiana Fever49c41.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2324656.5%139 W · 107 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Minnesota Lynx50c40.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4512359.3%73 W · 50 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Minnesota Lynx77c40.52$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.313355.6%74 W · 59 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Minnesota Lynx74c38.94$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.057431.1%23 W · 51 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Minnesota Lynx76c38.44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0419257.3%110 W · 82 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d8e…13febacked Indiana Fever52c36.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.741233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Minnesota Lynx58c35.59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.952055%11 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Indiana Fever56c33.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8122440.2%90 W · 134 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Indiana Fever45c31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9555255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Minnesota Lynx50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1526054.6%142 W · 118 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x733c…521bbacked Indiana Fever49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453b…6660backed Minnesota Lynx53c27.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…a242backed Minnesota Lynx75c26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba00…527bbacked Indiana Fever53c25.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.485168.6%35 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+30.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Indiana Fever50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d5…82bfbacked Minnesota Lynx76c23.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dae…7199backed Indiana Fever48c22.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.627248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Indiana Fever51c21.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116946.4%32 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Indiana Fever49c20.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2110853.7%58 W · 50 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Minnesota Lynx76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.