Wallet 0xb4d2…ce99
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xb4d250f58c26840e09723a83ce9c8149aa32ce99
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 181
- What they are worth now
- $72,658
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 1
bought for $71,422
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 181, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?backed No | 56,129shares | 79c | 79c | $44,370 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?backed Yes | 6,646shares | 5c | 35c | $2,336 |
| Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?backed No | 2,326shares | 90c | 87c | $2,012 |
| Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-08-25?backed No | 1,899shares | 65c | 70c | $1,319 |
| Tampa Bay Rays winning after 5 innings?backed No | 2,500shares | 50c | 49c | $1,213 |
| Game Spread: Draxl (-1.5) vs Mejia (+1.5)backed Draxl | 2,052shares | 37c | 56c | $1,159 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?backed No | 3,060shares | 20c | 36c | $1,086 |
| Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?backed Yes | 1,208shares | 73c | 88c | $1,057 |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machacbacked Tomas Machac | 4,846shares | 33c | 21c | $993 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?backed Yes | 1,269shares | 49c | 75c | $951 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 1 largest of 1. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0xf103…3d78backed outcome 1 | 202.02shares | 1c | $0 | Not ingested |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 is not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about that market, so it is neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 19,672
- Categories scored
- 36
- Categories below 50
- 21
Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).
Best Category Europa Conference League at 58 out of 100; worst NFL at 43.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 19,672 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennislast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 4,882 | 38.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| CS2last resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 2,608 | 30.9%807 W · 1,801 L | -103.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 2,187 | 33.3%729 W · 1,458 L | -71.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| Valorantlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| MLBlast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 752 | 44%331 W · 421 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| Dota2last resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 679 | 32.5%221 W · 458 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| Mlslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Cricketlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 434 | 41%178 W · 256 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| WNBAlast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| La Ligalast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 179 | 36.9%66 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Serie Alast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Bundesligalast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| NFLlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| F1last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Musiclast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.