NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. Colts
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61ae4aca98fef666809e6455dba9ab82274bd983154604dded40178d2d4bed74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Falcons, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Falcons | 41c | 10,157$4,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,031.13 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Colts | 62c | 4,219$2,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,615.66 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Colts | 64c | 3,038$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.99 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Falcons | 36c | 2,464$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.75 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Falcons | 75c | 2,101$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.05 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colts | 63c | 1,795$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.85 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Colts | 63c | 1,600$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colts | 48c | 1,484$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.37 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e65…694fbacked Colts | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Falcons | 37c | 800$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Colts | 56c | 658.11$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.87 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…c3c3backed Falcons | 37c | 570$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.1 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Falcons | 38c | 547$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.26 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Colts | 35c | 533.54$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.07 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…492ebacked Falcons | 66c | 510$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Falcons | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Colts | 48c | 488$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Colts | 62c | 390$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.8 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Colts | 43c | 278.71$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Colts | 49c | 276.36$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.77 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Falcons | 41c | 265.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.47 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Falcons | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Colts | 30c | 230.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Colts | 38c | 218.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Colts | 42c | 215.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…a0fdbacked Falcons | 39c | 200$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Colts | 61c | 193.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Colts | 34c | 180$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Colts | 59c | 168.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Colts | 65c | 150.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…9f18backed Falcons | 36c | 149.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +96%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Colts | 56c | 149$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Colts | 46c | 145$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…3bdebacked Colts | 45c | 121.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…41c9backed Colts | 54c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Colts | 64c | 109.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Falcons | 62c | 102.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Colts | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…345fbacked Colts | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Falcons | 35c | 95.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Colts | 49c | 93.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colts | 61c | 90.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Falcons | 40c | 86.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Colts | 63c | 81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Colts | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Colts | 37c | 75.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Falcons | 41c | 70.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Colts | 56c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Colts | 63c | 62.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Falcons | 40c | 55.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Falcons | 37c | 52.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Colts | 39c | 42.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Colts | 59c | 41.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Falcons | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 207 | 60.9%126 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Colts | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Falcons | 35c | 31.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Falcons | 38c | 31.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Falcons | 35c | 30.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…e452backed Colts | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…f2b3backed Falcons | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Colts | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…df87backed Falcons | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Colts | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Falcons vs. Coltsthis page
- 1H Spread: Colts (-1.5)Falcons won
- ATL vs. IND: O/U 36.5Over won
- Spread: IND (-1.5)ATL won
- Spread: IND (-2.5)ATL won
- Spread: IND (-3.5)ATL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.