NFL · resolved market
Spread: IND (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a6329e17514e20dac94945c1971934e6e2f8f581b11505a8bad1804061e6f88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ATLof IND, ATL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked ATL | 51c | 13,414$6,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,522.86 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked ATL | 49c | 8,140$4,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,123.69 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed IND | 49c | 5,179$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,557.44 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed IND | 52c | 5,037$2,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.44 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed IND | 52c | 3,792$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed IND | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed ATL | 48c | 2,969$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.87 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed IND | 48c | 2,024$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.59 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed IND | 50c | 1,267$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.44 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked IND | 25c | 586.84$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.82 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked ATL | 49c | 337$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.87 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed IND | 51c | 273.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.13 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked IND | 49c | 260.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.45 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked IND | 49c | 256$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.44 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked ATL | 63c | 176$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed IND | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed ATL | 61c | 102.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed IND | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked ATL | 66c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed IND | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed IND | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked ATL | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked IND | 50c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked ATL | 47c | 31.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed IND | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked IND | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed ATL | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: IND (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Colts (-1.5)Falcons won
- ATL vs. IND: O/U 36.5Over won
- Falcons vs. ColtsFalcons won
- Spread: IND (-1.5)ATL won
- Spread: IND (-2.5)ATL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.