TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0a06…41c9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 51 out of 100; worst Movies at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST3435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$140.62
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+39.3%+$56.4
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76.6
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$13.03
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$224.4
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$93.25
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$96.57
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$78
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+72.4%+$42
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+33.3%+$15
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$14.04
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+42.9%+$30
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$121
Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+43.7%+$38
Will Chris Christie attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$19.03
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+400%+$56
Will Shou Chew attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Rudy Giuliani attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$24.5
Will every president attend Trump’s inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$169.32
Will Giorgia Meloni attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$36.4
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2025, EST1330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 52 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$23.7
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$105
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$488.24
Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+56.9%+$181.14
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+68.1%+$81
Will Jon Husted be appointed as the next Ohio senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+58.7%+$14.8
Will Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$38
Will Republicans have 56 or more seats in Senate after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$37
Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$15.44
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$93.97
Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+78.5%+$185.15
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFLlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Falcons vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.6
Seahawks vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$86
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$725Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$724.65
Will the Indianapolis Colts finish with the best record in the NFL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$13.27
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+185.7%+$19.5
Packers vs. Lions: O/U 48.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$15.25
Colts vs. Chiefsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Spread: Colts (-3.5)backed Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$47
Colts vs. Steelersbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$62
Spread: Colts (-12.5)backed Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+72%+$147.31
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+105.5%+$154
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$23.2
Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Anora"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+63.9%+$19.5
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+63.9%+$15.6
Will "I Am Ready, Warden" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$21.6
All 8 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$741Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+55.8%+$413.77
Alabama vs. Oklahomabacked Oklahoma · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$16.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$220.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$157.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$131.49
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.