Us Politics · resolved market
Will every president attend Trump’s inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c930780e8e8890ca9f1c2e293d270e0e5c05e321a5bdf57340eaba0b550a84f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 9c | 23,905$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 3c | 14,073$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.23 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…41c9backed No | 4c | 4,233$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.32 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…dc31backed No | 4c | 4,061$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed No | 4c | 3,447$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked No | 5c | 3,178$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.98 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 7c | 2,959$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.12 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 16c | 2,636$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.69 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 2,430$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f94…cebbbacked No | 2c | 2,193$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…3e95backed No | 20c | 2,130$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 79c | 2,107$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.63 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 10c | 2,040$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 8c | 1,844$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed No | 4c | 1,684$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 6c | 1,550$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 10c | 1,414$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…256bbacked No | 12c | 1,407$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed No | 8c | 1,180$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ea…fa11backed No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 13c | 981.21$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.56 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…6fddbacked No | 5c | 896.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…3ac0backed No | 6c | 855.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked No | 4c | 822.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed No | 4c | 804.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…6912backed No | 11c | 786$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 2c | 783.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb271…8bdbbacked No | 6c | 752.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 11c | 650$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 8c | 650$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…e951backed No | 4c | 586.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed No | 4c | 444.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed No | 14c | 420$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 79c | 318.36$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 3c | 318.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 8c | 315.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…4f72backed No | 11c | 307$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 76c | 300$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd231…7562backed No | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No | 13c | 299.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 6c | 277$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50fe…7e38backed No | 4c | 255$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…d5fcbacked No | 25c | 209.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…7cfbbacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da6…388fbacked No | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 10c | 194.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9de…0dc5backed No | 12c | 170.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…c226backed No | 7c | 157$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 79c | 149.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…8225backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…bf6fbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e3…9ee9backed No | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…2d07backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…d3ecbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 13c | 99.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed Yes | 58c | 97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…f0bebacked No | 42c | 97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4678…7316backed No | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…49febacked No | 15c | 66.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 77c | 50.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…ce42backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.