TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x664d…aa7d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
188
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
17

Best Category: CS2, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 57 out of 100; worst NHL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST6229%18 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$18.5
Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$18.4
Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$16.1
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$69
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$123.99
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+115.8%+$66.61
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+44%+$54.85
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$357
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$95
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
US strikes Yemen before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.9
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$86.07
Houthi strike on Israel before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel strikes Syria by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$50.62
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$165.58
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+57.8%+$158.48
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.4
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.49
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$259.18
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST5010%5 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$63.99
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+146.6%+$130.8
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$31.2
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+86.9%+$40.37
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.47
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+483.1%+$140.85
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.3
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.1
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$190.95
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.68
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.2
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.52
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.5
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$34.3
Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$11.15
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST2425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$37
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$59.53
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.51
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$11.22
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+29.9%+$113.57
Will Trump save TikTok in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$25.5
Will every president attend Trump’s inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$16.73
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$44.95
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$15.6
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$42.84
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$270
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+547.6%+$176
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$94.16
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$67
Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$82.11
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+75.4%+$98.9
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+257.1%+$86.4
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$21.51
Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$112.5
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+39.9%+$57
All 24 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Packers vs. Eaglesbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$28.97
Broncos vs. Billsbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Steelers vs. Ravensbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$13.6
Chargers vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+150%+$36
All 4 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stars vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Oilers vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$78
Canucks vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST+61.3%+$7.6
Avalanche vs. Blackhawksbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST-100%-$13.6
All 4 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+169.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine hits Moscow by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$23.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$177.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$99.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk say "Ad format" during the August 6 AMA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-01-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.