Us Politics · resolved market
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x570a19274f74c16a628f2693d3a56c4ecceda4c3ffe9392f6f4e21dee40aec0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,191,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,304,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,191,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,031 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed No | 18c | 84,947$15,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,695.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 72c | 75,292$54,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,705.89 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 76c | 59,348$44,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,442.77 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 72c | 43,423$31,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,190.98 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 47c | 42,347$19,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,469.67 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 77c | 37,261$28,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,750.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf34…5af4backed No | 50c | 36,422$18,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,038.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 29c | 29,125$8,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,432.32 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 64c | 26,759$17,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,655.93 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…ddfebacked No | 52c | 20,397$10,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,624.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…6adcbacked No | 39c | 15,404$5,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,968 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed Yes | 68c | 15,308$10,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,970.18 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 15,132$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.97 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ff…c5ecbacked Yes | 63c | 14,809$9,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,501.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 69c | 14,301$9,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,388.94 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 54c | 14,128$7,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,513.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 72c | 13,557$9,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,830.7 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 65c | 12,885$8,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,502.49 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 69c | 11,033$7,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,428.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 78c | 10,000$7,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,232.19 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 71c | 10,000$7,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 58c | 9,786$5,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,083.84 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef7…279cbacked No | 16c | 9,742$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 41c | 9,224$3,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,807.96 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb04…1a5ebacked No | 56c | 8,330$4,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,661.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 69c | 7,271$5,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed Yes | 49c | 6,800$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 49c | 6,657$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,406.56 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe680…8788backed Yes | 70c | 6,632$4,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +173.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d14…a653backed No | 48c | 6,470$3,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked No | 52c | 5,798$3,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,010 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 70c | 5,717$3,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.13 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc570…c2a0backed No | 53c | 5,691$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 13c | 5,351$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.56 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 60c | 5,268$3,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.61 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 63c | 5,140$3,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.72 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 40c | 5,032$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 62c | 4,882$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.87 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 72c | 4,870$3,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.99 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 20c | 4,705$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.64 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaa…f8c9backed No | 50c | 4,541$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf195…a7c1backed No | 18c | 4,402$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f7…b90abacked No | 5c | 4,399$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Yes | 45c | 4,397$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 4c | 4,361$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.96 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 64c | 4,317$2,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.42 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 63c | 4,241$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.83 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 31c | 4,231$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.42 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…3134backed No | 43c | 4,116$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 27c | 4,085$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.05 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 49c | 4,058$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.88 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 9c | 4,057$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…2a55backed No | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…64a8backed Yes | 64c | 3,661$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed No | 41c | 3,658$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 36c | 3,634$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.06 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 28c | 3,624$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.02 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…e21cbacked No | 13c | 3,566$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 56c | 3,350$1,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.74 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked No | 39c | 3,186$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed No | 45c | 3,118$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 45c | 3,093$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.65 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 21c | 3,032$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.13 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 49c | 3,012$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.12 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed Yes | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.97 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 69c | 2,996$2,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 48c | 2,927$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 77c | 2,851$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 6c | 2,741$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.46 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…7badbacked No | 47c | 2,683$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9747…2823backed No | 49c | 2,625$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…2d0fbacked No | 45c | 2,456$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…5312backed No | 53c | 2,430$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5b…6011backed Yes | 52c | 2,414$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 48c | 2,389$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.25 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…80acbacked No | 44c | 2,375$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 41c | 2,255$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.35 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16b…d883backed Yes | 69c | 2,249$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 50c | 2,169$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.35 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 57c | 2,153$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 71c | 2,128$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.26 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b4…a5ebbacked Yes | 49c | 2,125$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f15…2ffdbacked Yes | 50c | 2,081$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ab…008cbacked No | 51c | 2,053$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…db1dbacked No | 50c | 2,039$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…11dfbacked Yes | 49c | 2,036$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 58c | 2,003$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 67c | 1,993$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.94 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 35c | 1,965$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.47 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 9c | 1,944$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.14 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…f756backed Yes | 47c | 1,935$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…f490backed Yes | 52c | 1,928$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…1607backed No | 5c | 1,896$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 75c | 1,885$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.85 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 75c | 1,877$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…e731backed Yes | 48c | 1,875$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.