TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd06f…d4a6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
237
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST7156.3%40 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple reach $288 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+66.3%+$235.54
Will Netflix reach $124.30 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+58.5%+$141.87
Will Netflix dip to $101.50 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+92.3%+$69.26
Will Netflix reach $119 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+94.4%+$215.07
Will Amazon reach $260 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$142.33
Will NVIDIA reach $224 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$109.8
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $114 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$31.1
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $122 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$53.64
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $120 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$38.71
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $190 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+72.4%+$25.49
Will Airbnb (ABNB) close above $140 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+41.7%+$102.2
Will Airbnb (ABNB) close above $150 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+26%+$52.84
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$214.45
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$162.41
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$31.9
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $555 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,131Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+25.4%+$540.28
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$689Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+25.4%+$174.72
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+59.5%+$120.89
Will Tesla reach $480 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+455.9%+$520.48
Will NVIDIA reach $252 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$16.03
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$315 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$20.51
Will Netflix dip to $105 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+56.5%+$21.65
Will Airbnb dip to $116 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+47.8%+$177.95
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of November 10 above $1,120?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$259.27
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of November 10 above $1,140?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$172.55
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT3633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+376.2%+$302.81
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,224.47
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.59
Israel military action against Iran before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.71
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$634Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+50.8%+$321.84
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$112.1
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$256.66
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$393.99
Israel x Iran peace deal in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$81.61
Israel strikes Iranian oil in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$219.29
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$6,793Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+43.6%+$2,963.5
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$723Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$722.53
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$5,193Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+50.1%+$2,600.55
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$516.46
Assad leaves Syria before 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$268.4
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+2,135%+$1,159.68
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$78.72
Iran strike on Israel before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$658Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+86.9%+$572.52
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,091Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+35.8%+$749.17
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,228Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$1,228.33
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+42.9%+$6.6
U.S. military action against Iran before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,147Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+29.5%+$632.56
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$229.5
Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$49.25
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$20
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.25
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,590Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+282.6%+$4,492.84
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$380.4
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+198.8%+$230.19
Trump x Khamenei talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.15
Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$222.68
Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Vietnam counter tariff the U.S. in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.1
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$7,602Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+26.4%+$2,007.46
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.6
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,846Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+27.2%+$773.48
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$19.67
Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs on EU before Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.75
Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+923.3%+$1,002.32
Gold missing from Fort Knox?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,370Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$630
Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$18.37
Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+900%+$153
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$66.56
Will $Trump FDV be $40-45b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$26.07
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,443Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$1,443.2
Total crypto market cap over $4 trillion on Jan 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$326.24
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+76%+$58.49
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.4%+$58.22
Pump.fun >$5B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$597Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$596.57
Rainbow airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,314Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+33.5%+$439.98
Jumper airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+72.7%+$322.79
Will another coin be the next coin listed on Robinhood?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$169.72
Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will another Trump coin be first to reach $1b?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.94
No Trump coin reaches $1b?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,577Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+27.1%+$699.29
$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,703Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+40.9%+$697.45
$POPCAT listed on Binance or Coinbase in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$505Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+77.2%+$389.64
Jumper airdrop in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,449Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+46.8%+$678.24
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,079Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+51.1%+$550.68
Linea airdrop in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+38.9%+$157.48
Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST-100%-$285.22
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $1-2b one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$17.9
Will $Pnut be listed first on Coinbase?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$724Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST+30.3%+$219.3
Will $POPCAT be listed first on Coinbase?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$146.63
Will Dogecoin reach $0.45 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$538Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST+52.6%+$282.82
Dogecoin above $0.37 on November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$70.18
Will FWOG be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$465Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$465.01
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT+37%+$68.85
Rabby airdrop by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$45
Berachain airdrop by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.56
Aleo airdrop by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$323.69
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2119%4 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-65.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$43.19
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.14
Fed abolished in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.2
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$32.78
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,624Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$1,624.25
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$183.75
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.75
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$386Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+31.6%+$122.15
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,629Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$1,629.14
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$9,008Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$9,007.62
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20,829Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+53.4%+$11,117.14
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$5,840Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+47.1%+$2,748.35
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$37.7
Fed rate hike in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$76.16
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$119.96
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$262.13
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$58
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$670Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+198.5%+$1,330
Fed emergency rate cut in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$18.77
All 21 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12,999Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26%+$3,380.87
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$4,991Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+150.5%+$7,509.18
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$7,300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$2,700.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48.2
Will BNB dip to $800 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+214.8%+$396.06
Will Solana dip to $130 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+300%+$1,122.75
Will Solana dip to $140 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$499Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+203.1%+$1,014.26
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,531Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+26.4%+$404.03
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,380Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$620
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,580Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,579.59
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$745Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$255
Will Fartcoin dip to $0.75 before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$24.37
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.53
Will Fartcoin reach $1.50 before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+53.9%+$56.2
Will Hyperliquid reach $30 before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$221.48
Will Hyperliquid reach $28 before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$138.34
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25,117Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25,117
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$28,155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$28,154.66
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13,779Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$13,779.46
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$4,919Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$4,919.5
All 20 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.49
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$109
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,391Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+96.7%+$2,311.02
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Sam Altman settle with his sister before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$50
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$283.58
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$194
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,661Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+37%+$614.2
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,157.55
GPT-5 not announced in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$705Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$705
ChatGPT integration with iPhone before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,839Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+48.4%+$890.3
All 11 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-41.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-55.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+32.6%+$59.75
US stagflation in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,078Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+27%+$290.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$9,542Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$9,542.24
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,192Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+37%+$810.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Anthropic IPO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy guilty of all charges?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Sep 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NIKE (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.