TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,554 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c19,989$20 inLost-$19.99280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c7,892$40 inLost-$40.11,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes2c7,335$111 inLost-$111368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c5,846$53 inLost-$52.7133313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c7a…7bafbacked Yes3c5,410$135 inLost-$135.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbabb…533cbacked Yes2c4,405$79 inLost-$79.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f81…6d77backed Yes1c4,009$36 inLost-$36.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7856…43b2backed Yes2c3,965$62 inLost-$61.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes1c3,380$36 inLost-$36.385614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes1c3,329$23 inLost-$23.472626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,919$10 inLost-$10.05736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ae2…8c70backed Yes4c1,607$64 inLost-$63.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c1,310$65 inLost-$65.255618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes1c1,217$12 inLost-$12110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c1,200$18 inLost-$17.661466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes2c1,199$25 inLost-$25.457128.2%20 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde6…0329backed Yes1c999.95$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ca…6e50backed Yes1c817.16$11 inLost-$10.6220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c804.64$21 inLost-$21.293989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c4…ab7fbacked Yes2c769$15 inLost-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes4c638.27$26 inLost-$26.054126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes8c499.99$40 inLost-$4099629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes7c400$27 inLost-$2739522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes4c325$14 inLost-$14.253441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac1d…4e6fbacked Yes4c293$11 inLost-$11.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes10c280$29 inLost-$28.83221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.