TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,360,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,571,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,360,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,754 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x62cf…5826backed No61c299,004$182,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182,554.91553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe16d…8734backed Yes53c143,655$76,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,254.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked No39c135,690$53,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,2391315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-77.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x939f…6d5ebacked No0c108,290$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc443…f19fbacked Yes46c106,818$49,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,318.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked No61c104,492$64,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,255.471050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ba…9e00backed No63c99,805$62,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,679.43650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f13…801cbacked Yes33c85,868$28,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,1911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+199.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd276…b562backed Yes41c80,386$32,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,552.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87bf…755fbacked No0c74,320$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No44c71,670$31,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,877.994542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98cd…46a5backed Yes49c62,559$30,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,084.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6155…7ebbbacked Yes51c56,694$28,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,713.83520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba9…3739backed Yes36c55,166$20,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,061.34520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…fe63backed Yes28c51,133$14,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,815.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8096…f6a4backed No72c51,133$36,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,815.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa59c…6338backed Yes53c35,576$18,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,777.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4d…0b85backed No57c30,721$17,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,510.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc067…a108backed Yes43c30,721$13,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,510.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3394…2373backed No62c29,456$18,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,262.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0b…1d34backed Yes38c29,456$11,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,262.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e46…e925backed No1c29,405$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked No42c29,330$12,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,199.412123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No42c28,070$11,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,833.16145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6a…e784backed Yes44c27,725$12,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,5261100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b7…5400backed No56c27,725$15,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,526333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c17…83c8backed No62c27,598$17,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,005.12850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed No51c26,445$13,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,436.821040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes44c25,785$11,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,35516544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5256…c969backed Yes40c25,077$9,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,086.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde05…1ababacked Yes62c23,837$14,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,993.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x991a…d81abacked Yes28c23,079$6,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,644.58933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6582…b3d2backed Yes54c22,168$12,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,114.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bef…2126backed No0c22,010$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes39c21,992$8,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,377.682343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No57c21,809$12,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,391.2299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ab7…387ebacked Yes50c21,607$10,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,771.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No52c20,755$10,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,870.333818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes75c20,609$15,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,193.341861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb48e…a144backed Yes44c20,000$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,300366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9570…c030backed Yes25c18,569$4,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,870.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+295.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No52c18,161$9,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,354.641238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe7…d95abacked Yes36c16,680$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,679.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5092…76babacked Yes61c16,367$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,366.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No44c16,232$7,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,124.724951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed No62c16,104$10,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,048.28728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick64cpaid-60.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No73c15,986$11,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,635.7969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed No68c15,507$10,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,491.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-41.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No54c15,365$8,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,320.6817633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes34c15,254$5,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,057.454126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4621…f0a1backed No53c15,137$7,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,986.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf460…c31fbacked Yes33c14,764$4,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,895.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d0…3df9backed Yes35c14,702$5,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,509.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+183.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb4…d00fbacked Yes53c14,673$7,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,957.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a97…9319backed No56c14,336$8,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,057.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes40c13,853$5,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,272.3233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab1c…35a7backed No0c13,669$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.570%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb12e…2408backed Yes37c13,501$4,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,509.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+42.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked No75c13,461$10,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,107.031546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes41c13,063$5,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,760.891526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ace…2f19backed Yes34c12,819$4,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,459.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+47%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1218…f3e3backed Yes43c12,671$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,1711100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed No47c11,669$5,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,437.937147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1765…a60bbacked Yes54c11,316$6,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,249.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c62…527bbacked Yes48c11,276$5,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,885.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f70…63b2backed Yes33c11,231$3,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,544.73425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc5…06d5backed Yes46c11,184$5,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,033.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79f8…9f03backed No47c10,851$5,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,093.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No26c10,791$2,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,817.6816535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a86…2220backed Yes24c10,589$2,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,024.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+132.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4872…a3eebacked Yes39c10,186$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,188.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+154.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80037844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb28…abd4backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa268…d60bbacked Yes43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,700425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa268…9211backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed No55c10,000$5,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4601338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8861…eed6backed No58c10,000$5,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,749.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes45c9,851$4,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,393.2114135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a7f…b8febacked Yes54c9,281$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,281.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x631b…62e1backed Yes54c9,170$4,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,243.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed No61c9,050$5,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,487.432352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06c1…2727backed Yes40c9,031$3,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,418.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cda…608cbacked No0c9,012$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes27c8,665$2,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,344.218746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No37c8,632$3,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,236.263221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No42c8,608$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.846740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed No50c8,504$4,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,255.38650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1675…a52abacked Yes37c8,497$3,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,329.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+168.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b1…bc54backed No72c8,230$5,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,915.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6095…b9fbbacked No58c8,097$4,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,698.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No49c8,086$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.41520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No47c8,000$3,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,731.743860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No48c7,929$3,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,823.938036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…5c1dbacked Yes53c7,690$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,589.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No48c7,667$3,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,695.099533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe749…f771backed No68c7,586$5,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,135.881145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked No45c7,581$3,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,434.851428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked No57c7,513$4,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,248.491353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda68…7ee2backed No48c7,500$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No56c7,074$3,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,927.2335519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.