TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$839,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$646,113

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $839,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 355 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6582…b3d2backed Yes43c70,022$29,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,783.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No64c65,735$42,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,373.91553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd905…7e95backed Yes24c41,047$9,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,98210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes11c30,545$3,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,439.4933313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x610c…3a8ebacked Yes19c24,185$4,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,702.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes8c22,778$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.782123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f4…96c7backed Yes32c17,981$5,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,840.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ec…bf48backed Yes23c17,783$4,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,122.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes7c15,556$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.273818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa268…d60bbacked Yes30c15,142$4,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,481.64425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes8c14,235$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.25287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc22f…48b0backed Yes39c12,143$4,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,766.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes3c11,624$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.731315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-77.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6a45…dd1dbacked Yes11c10,576$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.47560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes11c9,258$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c62…527bbacked Yes21c9,250$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed No69c8,899$6,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.81650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc51d…3ca1backed Yes19c8,516$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes15c8,380$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.94368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde28…8dbdbacked Yes36c8,332$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No61c8,233$4,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,247.0818746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes24c7,345$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.122060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes19c5,700$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-83.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed No72c5,391$3,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.413948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac1…0389backed Yes7c5,142$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes33c5,000$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,643.453218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91ce…16ecbacked Yes38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9001030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No63c4,451$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.944951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes7c4,449$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.441540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-33.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes12c4,280$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.817331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa24f…3c46backed Yes12c4,270$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c4,037$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.813912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe229…1d91backed Yes20c3,873$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes7c3,850$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.52623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked No70c3,415$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.831233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-49.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes6c3,354$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.13215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c3,258$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9611010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2657…4af5backed No62c2,693$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3d…08a3backed Yes20c2,520$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…1d8cbacked Yes2c2,493$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+247.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No75c2,492$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.637441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes8c2,300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18315227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaec4…fa49backed Yes18c2,203$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No54c2,159$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.1516144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1277…13d8backed Yes6c2,033$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.561145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes3c2,001$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.088615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes38c2,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75016544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9804…6896backed Yes9c1,997$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.73616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0099…b070backed Yes12c1,921$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+50.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes1c1,806$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.165326.4%14 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c1,766$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.491428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes1c1,742$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5242…7aa6backed Yes18c1,713$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes7c1,619$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.191466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef6…0d9dbacked Yes22c1,587$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x995d…404dbacked Yes8c1,504$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No19c1,472$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.324942.9%21 W · 28 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+218.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x0f63…835abacked Yes31c1,428$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed Yes32c1,401$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.73959%23 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No66c1,346$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.038036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes27c1,290$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.36015%9 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes11c1,269$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2510324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes20c1,253$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+129.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c1,225$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.9596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78e4…62cabacked Yes1c1,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes5c1,143$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.16175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb4…36c3backed Yes18c1,119$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed No67c1,107$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.023046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaba…cbbebacked Yes9c1,100$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes10c1,094$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8913029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c1,050$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5513216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.14332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.522524%6 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x048a…635cbacked Yes13c1,000$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa968…aa45backed Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3701442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c9f…32b4backed Yes2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805736.8%21 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes13c999.98$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12612533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c3…da06backed Yes14c997.14$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes14c992.29$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe36d…290ebacked No76c990.63$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.88128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-89.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes9c950$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.016241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes13c924.5$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.817147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c902.09$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.851,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc00b…7f8dbacked Yes19c896.51$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd142…5c9ebacked Yes33c882.84$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes6c860.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.79397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a8…efe6backed Yes11c841.82$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes12c800$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7211541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x994c…429dbacked Yes12c777.92$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes24c771.8$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.741145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9518…c9e3backed Yes13c748.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd5…25b0backed Yes19c742.64$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid+99.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c736.99$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2444111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No69c736.38$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.254843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf632…64fabacked Yes13c710$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a47…846fbacked Yes16c710$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3760%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes37c700$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2591833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.