TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$206,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,707

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,954 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c19,960$20 inLost-$19.96280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c7,095$157 inLost-$157.1233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cff…6e85backed Yes3c5,523$188 inLost-$187.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,139$27 inLost-$26.861,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f2…eba8backed Yes3c4,614$157 inLost-$156.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes2c4,040$87 inLost-$86.96368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes3c4,000$132 inLost-$132287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a4…bf2dbacked Yes1c1,741$13 inLost-$13757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick18cpaid+1,617.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes8c1,376$111 inLost-$110.7855618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes2c1,238$20 inLost-$202222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,159$27 inLost-$27.0896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes2c1,110$17 inLost-$16.6535519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes1c1,027$13 inLost-$13110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes4c1,000$36 inLost-$35.576015%9 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa609…8141backed Yes2c1,000$18 inLost-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes3c1,000$32 inLost-$325149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe36d…290ebacked Yes4c1,000$36 inLost-$36128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-89.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x515a…de7fbacked Yes4c913.66$34 inLost-$33.51520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba9…3739backed Yes4c874.07$37 inLost-$37.14520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes6c799.98$44 inLost-$4439522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9f…e8c9backed Yes8c757.78$62 inLost-$61.81464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+98%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6736…058cbacked Yes4c686.37$29 inLost-$29130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes4c665.74$24 inLost-$23.967128.2%20 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes2c634.22$14 inLost-$14.22030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes3c610.9$20 inLost-$19.7514624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c606.49$20 inLost-$19.885614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes6c550$32 inLost-$31.54126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3615…d531backed Yes4c526.32$20 inLost-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04fd…419bbacked Yes3c357$12 inLost-$12.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd97e…0123backed Yes5c291$14 inLost-$14.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4546…4ac9backed Yes5c282$14 inLost-$13.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9558…b57bbacked Yes5c281$14 inLost-$13.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ea…e9e1backed Yes5c276$14 inLost-$13.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1177…263bbacked Yes4c274$10 inLost-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d2e…1b2fbacked Yes5c268$13 inLost-$13.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c8…44e2backed Yes4c254$10 inLost-$10.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ba…fa78backed Yes4c251$10 inLost-$10.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f68…f7f7backed Yes5c245$12 inLost-$12.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbece…5644backed Yes5c241$12 inLost-$11.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b9…abe0backed Yes10c233$23 inLost-$23.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd6c…e4a9backed Yes5c217$11 inLost-$10.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes9c163$14 inLost-$14.132154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.