Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa24ff31c2cd56cc9a0b8a72586e9be9b7661f76da9a23481219fd461e1650c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,797,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,752,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,797,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 464 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 4c | 63,015$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745.13 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…d60bbacked Yes | 12c | 60,877$7,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,364 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 55,486$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.22 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 3c | 35,423$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.62 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 3c | 30,068$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.67 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 7c | 24,938$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.14 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 24,824$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 6c | 23,369$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.97 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…c7bfbacked Yes | 5c | 20,665$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…99d6backed Yes | 5c | 20,593$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…0740backed Yes | 11c | 17,247$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 3c | 16,033$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.92 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…559fbacked Yes | 13c | 15,333$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…3c4dbacked Yes | 7c | 14,052$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 4c | 13,170$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 12,640$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.42 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 12,181$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.14 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 5c | 12,036$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.1 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…7aa6backed Yes | 12c | 11,362$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 11,307$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.44 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 5c | 10,200$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.4 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08f…44fcbacked Yes | 10c | 9,991$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 9c | 7,762$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.81 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…d00fbacked Yes | 9c | 7,057$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…2c98backed Yes | 8c | 6,985$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…1c37backed Yes | 12c | 6,685$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…1f24backed Yes | 5c | 6,210$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 8c | 6,061$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.11 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 5,732$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.53 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…711fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,624$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,548$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 9c | 5,360$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.61 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 8c | 5,322$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.44 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ce…d06dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,139$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 5,030$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…003bbacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd54d…1adcbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…9fe2backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…6a8bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,992$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0143…ed7ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,960$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…d068backed Yes | 20c | 4,930$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 8c | 4,865$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 9c | 4,526$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fa…2f1fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,523$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…4e74backed Yes | 2c | 4,446$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…35c9backed Yes | 2c | 4,377$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 5c | 4,374$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.9 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…4daabacked Yes | 9c | 4,307$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…dc46backed Yes | 7c | 4,259$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…eea5backed Yes | 7c | 4,129$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Yes | 7c | 4,110$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,819$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 8c | 3,809$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.64 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,744$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.6 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd518…a1b2backed Yes | 9c | 3,647$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…2d21backed Yes | 13c | 3,596$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 8c | 3,423$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a61…3c3abacked Yes | 9c | 3,348$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Yes | 9c | 3,270$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc206…710bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,225$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…bce0backed Yes | 11c | 3,177$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x242d…603abacked Yes | 10c | 3,101$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…01fdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,092$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…639ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,086$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 2c | 3,063$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd2…a3e5backed Yes | 7c | 3,034$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…445cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,868$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…f8d6backed Yes | 7c | 2,856$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6487…b9e3backed Yes | 6c | 2,830$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 7c | 2,824$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.03 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6196…c5debacked Yes | 7c | 2,790$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc82…a787backed Yes | 7c | 2,777$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…b412backed Yes | 5c | 2,766$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,683$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 11c | 2,571$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.64 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…799ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,562$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…517abacked Yes | 12c | 2,501$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,428$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,265$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…2a59backed Yes | 4c | 2,246$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…63b2backed Yes | 6c | 2,232$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,165$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ae…30a5backed Yes | 8c | 2,144$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…a739backed Yes | 2c | 2,131$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 6c | 2,088$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +150.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…57dcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445d…fca0backed Yes | 6c | 1,971$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…886abacked Yes | 8c | 1,934$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…3c6ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,924$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 10c | 1,898$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.07 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,876$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…ce54backed Yes | 9c | 1,850$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23b…aae8backed Yes | 9c | 1,739$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 4c | 1,709$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedf…c648backed Yes | 8c | 1,670$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…186fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9025…d2ccbacked Yes | 10c | 1,655$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?this page
- Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.