Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc22ee63f664a60ea3ed41f16bef2977b2a694ffc3d17f39be96bf2cdc57cabb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 2c | 32,935$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 1c | 24,836$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.87 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 69c | 13,295$9,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,110.97 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 0c | 10,059$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 19c | 6,980$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.08 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 23c | 4,269$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.69 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 21c | 4,126$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,279.43 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 69c | 3,205$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.5 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 21c | 2,898$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.89 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 10c | 1,799$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.73 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 1,313$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.89 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 22c | 1,266$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.79 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 2c | 1,201$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 13c | 955.97$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.69 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 907.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.18 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed No | 33c | 805$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 21c | 668$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.61 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7e…2a50backed Yes | 15c | 649.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +710.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 22c | 636$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd39f…d494backed Yes | 18c | 617.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 14c | 580.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.13 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 556$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.02 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 6c | 555$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.51 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 539.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.5 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…d077backed Yes | 14c | 505.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 8c | 476.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.61 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 71c | 465$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes | 53c | 462.8$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 16c | 429.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.92 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 19c | 423$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.46 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 7c | 419$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.41 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 7c | 411.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.3 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 11c | 405.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.09 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 14c | 377$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 363.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.53 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 11c | 313.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.7 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 25c | 313.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…5d71backed Yes | 9c | 309$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 9cpaid | +1,076.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…5834backed Yes | 9c | 309$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 9cpaid | +1,076.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…df4cbacked Yes | 10c | 308$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +930.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.99 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 72c | 281$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.57 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…8108backed Yes | 10c | 256.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 15c | 235$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.01 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde98…b219backed Yes | 9c | 220$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,062.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa120…7581backed Yes | 8c | 212$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,090.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…243fbacked Yes | 9c | 212$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 9cpaid | +1,076.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d31…3ba8backed Yes | 6c | 207$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,539.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 11c | 175.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.64 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf890…c6eebacked Yes | 9c | 166$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,058.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…4bf8backed Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,539.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…4b04backed Yes | 7c | 160$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be2…021cbacked Yes | 9c | 133$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 9cpaid | +1,076.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5315…b863backed Yes | 9c | 126$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 9cpaid | +1,076.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 115$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025?this page
- Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.