Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7df10a508471f20413b826f03a960fe5f47f45fa86cac9610ddeaf6f14345e50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $353,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $356,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $353,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f70…63b2backed Yes | 2c | 22,804$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 19,988$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 9,107$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.29 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,302$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,007$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcb…a7cfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbc…a287backed Yes | 4c | 3,792$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c8…1b8abacked Yes | 3c | 3,127$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaed…089fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,293$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 1c | 1,956$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,888$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…7aa6backed Yes | 6c | 1,629$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…673abacked Yes | 3c | 1,546$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ca…6e50backed Yes | 1c | 1,001$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 2c | 999.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…a73ebacked Yes | 3c | 961.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 800$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8a…5ba0backed Yes | 2c | 712.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 2c | 682.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 604.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…15cabacked Yes | 2c | 508$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…1169backed Yes | 2c | 480$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2268…75e4backed Yes | 2c | 472$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…c5e9backed Yes | 2c | 468$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0280…37dcbacked Yes | 2c | 463$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…7e8bbacked Yes | 2c | 450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…f8a5backed Yes | 5c | 433.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…6034backed Yes | 2c | 432.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…db7cbacked Yes | 5c | 429.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde65…3282backed Yes | 3c | 425$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes | 6c | 369.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bc…e260backed Yes | 6c | 341$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…a271backed Yes | 4c | 322$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 7c | 304.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…0da7backed Yes | 6c | 301.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…bf21backed Yes | 6c | 236.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025?this page
- Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.