Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7028fcfbf64ce6e64670e10d19fd7683eba964432ca99426dd168b5f0091323d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $284,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 19c | 31,828$6,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,107 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 21c | 27,725$5,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,769.19 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 77c | 10,000$7,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,317.56 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 6c | 7,323$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.22 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 3c | 5,563$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce4…5c0ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,328$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 23c | 4,363$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 4,139$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.41 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 79c | 2,444$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.33 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 25c | 2,287$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.03 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421f…86bbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,229$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 27c | 2,052$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.46 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 76c | 2,000$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 5c | 1,700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 14c | 1,537$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.45 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…19d7backed Yes | 6c | 1,203$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,020$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…53bebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 959.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 22c | 929.17$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 1c | 874.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 821$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…834fbacked No | 77c | 793$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 767$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…8108backed Yes | 3c | 764.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 77c | 741.3$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.48 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 7c | 699.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…64fabacked No | 79c | 677.05$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…8b4bbacked Yes | 6c | 661.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 610$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 14c | 600$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 4c | 555$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 79c | 490.99$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd46…5b12backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 6c | 441.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 13c | 435$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked Yes | 6c | 399.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 49c | 391.18$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…c965backed Yes | 13c | 362.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 350.24$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…f9c1backed Yes | 6c | 338.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 26c | 312$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 4c | 309.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 305.56$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…58d9backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 17c | 269.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…1287backed Yes | 7c | 267.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc834…319cbacked Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…2f28backed Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…93c5backed Yes | 6c | 234.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…1fb7backed Yes | 6c | 228.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 211$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 74c | 190.68$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 22c | 173$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 79c | 144.68$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b1…3b8fbacked Yes | 25c | 133.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…4060backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…cfffbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8df…d536backed Yes | 23c | 88.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 25c | 74.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 24c | 72.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…bed2backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…367cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b59…ba17backed Yes | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?this page
- Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.