TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,338
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,338 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c7,856$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.071,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes7c4,607$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.85368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes6c4,093$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.273542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0961…3ab4backed Yes1c3,987$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes1c3,387$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.49110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c3,255$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4533313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes7c2,240$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes6c1,836$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.353959%23 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes9c1,824$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.431952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes6c1,679$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5218425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes8c1,513$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2255618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes1c1,369$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6890%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes7c1,318$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.593215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes1c1,269$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.738036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c1,209$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.873912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaedf…c648backed Yes8c1,192$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.94128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2152…c3f9backed Yes10c980.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes6c947$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.826051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xff8d…57dcbacked Yes2c874.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes4c804.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2135519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes6c669.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.221935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes7c594$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3939522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9a03backed Yes11c592.93$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf839…33c5backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2148…639ebacked Yes3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c4…ab7fbacked Yes12c492.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.27520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes8c455$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.44126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb53…0412backed Yes2c422.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes7c406$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.428331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes8c401.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0912533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2415227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes8c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c364.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c1b…f9c1backed Yes8c361.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes8c350$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28527.7%4 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79ac…344abacked Yes10c327.95$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes7c300.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.05137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8f…1ee8backed Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef37…1287backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d6…4da7backed Yes8c225$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28b…60f0backed Yes7c199.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ea…f61ebacked Yes8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb11d…a6c5backed Yes9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes11c138$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.624035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x516d…d14bbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-61.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x432e…8829backed Yes9c122.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112045%9 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.