TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc550…272d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
173
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Commodities, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 61 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT5736.8%21 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,268Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+219.5%+$2,783.85
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$697Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+210.2%+$1,465.37
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$465Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$464.93
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.6
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$190
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,190Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$310
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$603Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+99.1%+$597.23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$572Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31%+$177.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.99
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$430
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,674Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+66%+$2,426
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$230
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.5
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$404.61
Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$58.46
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$284.48
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,498Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,498.45
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$792Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$792.49
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$452.66
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$348.89
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$270.45
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$3,914Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+86.3%+$3,375.72
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST3959%23 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+33.3%+$12.5
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$705Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+42.6%+$300.35
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,592Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,591.98
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$264.5
Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$425Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+76.3%+$324.58
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.29
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.59
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$113.35
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$559Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+75.9%+$424.26
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,517Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$454.19
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$7,868Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+53%+$4,171.83
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$583Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$583.48
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$155.99
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.35
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.29
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$40
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.5
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$583Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+41.6%+$242.25
Will Trump cut Medicaid before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$332.23
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,253Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+31.7%+$397
Will Trump remove Harvard tax exempt status?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$20
Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$73.5
Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+55.9%+$124.99
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+355.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$608Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+39.8%+$242
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.25
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+4,900%+$490
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.5
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$100
Will San Marino qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$55.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,092Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,092.41
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,519Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,518.81
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$150
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$301.6
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+34.3%+$70.24
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.05
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$44
Will Trump call Carney a "Governor" before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+74.7%+$85.5
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+46.7%+$191
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+38.4%+$138.75
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$52
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$373.31
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$699Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+53.7%+$375.24
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.5
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+55.4%+$150.51
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.2
Nothing Ever Happens backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+71.4%+$125
Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$144.42
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+26.4%+$31.35
Trump cuts Ukraine aid before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+110.2%+$40.9
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$32.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST1040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$144.28
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,114Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+68.7%+$764.73
Will Luigi Mangione rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+25%+$70
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+233.3%+$700
Will Elon Musk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,260Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+48.5%+$610.86
Will Taylor Swift rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$52.5
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$4,282Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$4,281.53
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,986Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,986.19
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$866Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$866.23
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.9
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT7100%7 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+164.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mexico tariffs on China in effect before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Trump x Xi talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+43.9%+$61
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+50.4%+$67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,891Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+25.3%+$1,238.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sweden vs. USAbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.