Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb34c141f89cb9f097820d71b4323443b27986a2681325f213787dcd4cd48bc74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 39c | 27,673$10,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,680.18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 57c | 16,027$9,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,847.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 38c | 11,808$4,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,481.85 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 63c | 10,292$6,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,815.38 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 80c | 9,952$7,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.72 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 45c | 8,163$3,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,506.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…eb52backed No | 74c | 7,852$5,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,821.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 69c | 7,483$5,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 45c | 6,282$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802.21 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 59c | 6,044$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570.37 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 35c | 5,778$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.24 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 53c | 5,055$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.9 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 31c | 4,722$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.85 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 24c | 4,715$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.54 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 13c | 4,652$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.76 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 4,405$2,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.67 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes | 74c | 4,063$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.67 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2893…1534backed Yes | 25c | 4,029$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,019.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…c8d5backed Yes | 70c | 4,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…c6bdbacked Yes | 72c | 3,905$2,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…a4b2backed Yes | 47c | 3,788$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 59c | 3,739$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…a012backed Yes | 68c | 3,394$2,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed Yes | 73c | 3,262$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 39c | 3,231$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.06 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 67c | 3,188$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 53c | 2,900$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 76c | 2,555$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Yes | 76c | 2,555$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 49c | 2,511$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.58 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…a2c4backed No | 68c | 2,427$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 34c | 2,253$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.84 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed Yes | 63c | 2,078$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.28 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 59c | 1,953$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.11 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,783$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.82 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 4c | 1,714$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 34c | 1,453$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed No | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 11c | 1,250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,214$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.73 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,200$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 66c | 1,192$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.96 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 31c | 1,141$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.23 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 64c | 1,119$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.45 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 31c | 1,100$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.89 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 26c | 1,082$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.94 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes | 55c | 1,080$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 37c | 1,020$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.4 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,002$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.85 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 29c | 999.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 63c | 999$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.37 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 56c | 966.07$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.66 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed Yes | 59c | 950$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 65c | 927.4$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.25 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 29c | 902.78$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.43 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 40c | 899.99$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.99 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 60c | 895.76$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.48 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…f464backed Yes | 28c | 878.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +251.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 16c | 874$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafc2…4476backed Yes | 51c | 870.6$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 54c | 849.61$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.2 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 48c | 800.51$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.05 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 56c | 798.34$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.09 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 54c | 762.84$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.12 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 64c | 732.57$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.84 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 713.51$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.91 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 43c | 700.2$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.55 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…50d1backed No | 72c | 691.87$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 49c | 691.05$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.96 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890b…d18fbacked Yes | 27c | 680.19$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 36c | 675.87$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1292…e678backed Yes | 61c | 667.1$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 41c | 647.06$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.25 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…db42backed No | 68c | 642.06$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 29c | 573.82$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.98 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 40c | 566$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 59c | 551.48$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.71 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 29c | 521.25$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.81 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…fb2cbacked Yes | 66c | 517.89$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…cd8bbacked Yes | 62c | 506.62$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked Yes | 50c | 491$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +250%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 63c | 482.26$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.35 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 44c | 444$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 56c | 437.94$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.69 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…6b50backed Yes | 24c | 420$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 409.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.73 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 56c | 400$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 57c | 400$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 44c | 386.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.58 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…d224backed Yes | 27c | 379.19$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 47c | 378.57$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.97 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed Yes | 27c | 371.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…f61abacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 38c | 352.26$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.43 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c97…0004backed Yes | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 29c | 344.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?this page
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?No won
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.