TailMyPicks
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$533,279
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$416,484

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $533,279 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes17c50,543$8,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,396.6626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes6c31,147$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.7132029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes9c20,899$1,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.885928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes13c17,855$2,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.862128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc060…8956backed Yes51c12,626$6,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,443.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed Yes9c10,985$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.992020%4 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes15c10,293$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5203622.2%8 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda45…d95bbacked Yes9c10,239$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.341020%2 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4960…7a11backed Yes24c9,515$2,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,313.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes0c8,003$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.72397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3309…a4b2backed Yes17c7,785$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.521030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes12c7,582$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.658111.1%9 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7670…5204backed Yes13c7,165$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes1c7,045$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.93195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-87.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes5c6,772$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3452718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-59.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f7…0331backed Yes11c6,467$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes13c6,429$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.2699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes3c5,167$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8118322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9501711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb6…099fbacked Yes16c4,724$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.8930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes20c4,669$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.74137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes11c4,500$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.913145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes13c3,969$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes11c3,759$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.64616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes16c3,681$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.514630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No79c3,370$2,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.4937533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes11c3,300$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36321935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed Yes14c3,200$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4342927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes13c3,162$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.3428320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Yes11c3,009$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick12cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3902050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes11c2,691$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.773240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes14c2,618$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.018544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c2,592$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.213989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x315b…d386backed Yes13c2,541$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f3…c8d5backed Yes16c2,500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No79c2,500$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5158444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…d4b6backed Yes4c2,474$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-73.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes11c2,469$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.318226.8%22 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes20c2,445$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed Yes16c2,247$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.372733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7a2…e144backed Yes12c2,241$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.9180%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No77c2,223$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.3511538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes14c2,200$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.872326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f30…acaebacked Yes15c2,176$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce59…eb51backed Yes24c2,115$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+851.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d6…af5abacked Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-59.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4e…e65abacked Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes16c1,998$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.684320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes11c1,900$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-54.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9647…c18abacked Yes22c1,837$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe21…2b7bbacked Yes12c1,742$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes13c1,700$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2282147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No78c1,680$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.752650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c1,666$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5455618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c1,628$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.4144111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed No80c1,600$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eec…18b1backed Yes17c1,570$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…6f25backed Yes16c1,556$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes11c1,554$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.941020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd392…881cbacked Yes3c1,544$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed Yes22c1,522$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3342748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf9…f593backed Yes19c1,481$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.91010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7a…5015backed Yes15c1,319$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid+130.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes10c1,306$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe386…5aa5backed Yes11c1,091$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,052$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.851,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c9…45e9backed Yes20c1,004$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-79.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc411…2a64backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38d…6c36backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick38cpaid-75.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2106028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e8a…91f0backed Yes16c999.82$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes13c938.81$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.278253.7%44 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea1…65fabacked Yes7c900.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.561030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-47.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c895.97$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.921,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked Yes13c888.55$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.277943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0c3…8cd8backed Yes2c830.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes15c824.19$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8537740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cb…3bbdbacked Yes9c800$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7240%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x477d…e691backed Yes25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…cd8bbacked Yes10c769.65$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a0b…8347backed Yes13c760.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes13c746.71$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.472412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-41.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc0…1b66backed Yes20c733.1$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f7…9769backed Yes19c725.14$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.061513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacfb…8c5dbacked Yes28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes12c703.6$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.843655.6%20 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+65.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a6a…a012backed Yes10c681.5$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.151233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5438…1c34backed Yes5c679.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x069f…a718backed Yes14c678.57$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde74…e866backed Yes14c644.29$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes12c636.75$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.411442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e6…2436backed Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.