Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4719769e64527b7470c4537fd293fd24cf719f89051fd4902be5c9834904560
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $533,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $416,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $533,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 17c | 50,543$8,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,396.6 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 6c | 31,147$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.71 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 9c | 20,899$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.88 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 17,855$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.86 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 51c | 12,626$6,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,443.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 9c | 10,985$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.99 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 15c | 10,293$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…d95bbacked Yes | 9c | 10,239$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4960…7a11backed Yes | 24c | 9,515$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,313.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 8,003$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…a4b2backed Yes | 17c | 7,785$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 12c | 7,582$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.65 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7670…5204backed Yes | 13c | 7,165$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,045$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 5c | 6,772$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…0331backed Yes | 11c | 6,467$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 6,429$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.26 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 5,167$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.81 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…099fbacked Yes | 16c | 4,724$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 20c | 4,669$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.74 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,500$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.9 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 13c | 3,969$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes | 11c | 3,759$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 16c | 3,681$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.51 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 79c | 3,370$2,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.49 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 11c | 3,300$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 14c | 3,200$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 13c | 3,162$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.34 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 11c | 3,009$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 11c | 2,691$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.77 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 14c | 2,618$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.01 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,592$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315b…d386backed Yes | 13c | 2,541$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…c8d5backed Yes | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 79c | 2,500$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…d4b6backed Yes | 4c | 2,474$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 11c | 2,469$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.31 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 20c | 2,445$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 16c | 2,247$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.37 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…e144backed Yes | 12c | 2,241$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 77c | 2,223$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.35 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 14c | 2,200$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.87 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…acaebacked Yes | 15c | 2,176$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce59…eb51backed Yes | 24c | 2,115$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +851.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…af5abacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…e65abacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,998$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.68 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes | 11c | 1,900$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9647…c18abacked Yes | 22c | 1,837$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe21…2b7bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,742$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 13c | 1,700$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 78c | 1,680$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 1,666$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.54 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,628$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.41 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed No | 80c | 1,600$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…18b1backed Yes | 17c | 1,570$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…6f25backed Yes | 16c | 1,556$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 11c | 1,554$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…881cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,544$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 22c | 1,522$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…f593backed Yes | 19c | 1,481$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…5015backed Yes | 15c | 1,319$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes | 10c | 1,306$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe386…5aa5backed Yes | 11c | 1,091$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,052$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…45e9backed Yes | 20c | 1,004$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…91f0backed Yes | 16c | 999.82$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 13c | 938.81$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea1…65fabacked Yes | 7c | 900.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 895.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 13c | 888.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.27 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…8cd8backed Yes | 2c | 830.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 15c | 824.19$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.85 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…3bbdbacked Yes | 9c | 800$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…cd8bbacked Yes | 10c | 769.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0b…8347backed Yes | 13c | 760.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 13c | 746.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed Yes | 20c | 733.1$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed Yes | 19c | 725.14$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.06 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacfb…8c5dbacked Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 12c | 703.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…a012backed Yes | 10c | 681.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5438…1c34backed Yes | 5c | 679.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…a718backed Yes | 14c | 678.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…e866backed Yes | 14c | 644.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 12c | 636.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2436backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30?this page
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.