Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f49dd52e18d7812b9bd2292afc6825e75552a3175c3a1101555588ee34d3249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $458,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $415,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $458,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 14c | 22,571$3,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,061.79 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…a4b2backed Yes | 16c | 18,783$2,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,931.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 4c | 16,300$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.73 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 11c | 10,680$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.23 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 6c | 10,031$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.78 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes | 18c | 10,011$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…e29cbacked No | 73c | 10,000$7,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,671.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 24c | 10,000$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 9,313$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 24c | 7,176$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 70c | 6,254$4,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.19 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 14c | 6,102$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.82 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 5,740$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 73c | 5,686$4,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.58 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 32c | 4,600$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…befebacked Yes | 1c | 4,212$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 68c | 3,932$2,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.61 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…4f7cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,895$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed No | 68c | 3,669$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 3,449$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed Yes | 28c | 3,411$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 17c | 3,338$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.69 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 25c | 3,209$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.53 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5648…68e3backed Yes | 19c | 3,131$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,006$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.44 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x199b…76d8backed Yes | 18c | 2,718$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…8a16backed Yes | 8c | 2,688$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 5c | 2,337$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 2,179$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.21 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 15c | 1,935$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 17c | 1,800$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 59c | 1,704$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…cd8bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,664$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 4c | 1,639$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…f3b0backed No | 67c | 1,544$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…178dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,425$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.64 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed Yes | 32c | 1,398$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.58 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 6c | 1,331$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…d93abacked Yes | 13c | 1,294$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…39b8backed Yes | 25c | 1,228$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…a91ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,220$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 23c | 1,220$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.63 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,215$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 21c | 1,204$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.11 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 31c | 1,100$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…cee3backed Yes | 9c | 1,086$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,085$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2893…1534backed Yes | 5c | 1,070$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…d4b6backed Yes | 19c | 1,046$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 28c | 1,027$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.55 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 69c | 1,022$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.94 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,010$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.87 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…e43fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 65c | 1,000$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.29 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…6095backed Yes | 9c | 999.87$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +223.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 31c | 999$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.69 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…754fbacked No | 66c | 975.38$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 22c | 967.83$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.34 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed Yes | 10c | 955.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea1…65fabacked Yes | 16c | 947.95$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 27c | 943.5$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.87 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb42…2c5cbacked Yes | 2c | 909$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bc…4098backed Yes | 3c | 886$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 24c | 883.33$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes | 2c | 854.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…0da6backed Yes | 24c | 818.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…5050backed Yes | 15c | 772.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 19c | 750$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…87fcbacked Yes | 4c | 749$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…82b9backed Yes | 25c | 702.97$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 46c | 691.04$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…bf09backed Yes | 3c | 677$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab7…99c7backed Yes | 37c | 639.12$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…d002backed Yes | 2c | 628$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 8c | 620.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 26c | 600$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…f71fbacked Yes | 5c | 580$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 53c | 564.46$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.29 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…3fb8backed Yes | 2c | 561.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 24c | 559.33$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 75c | 556.51$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.04 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 18c | 543.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…44d8backed Yes | 22c | 541.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed No | 76c | 513.58$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…d15fbacked Yes | 2c | 475$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 18c | 472.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 5c | 470.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc24c…70b7backed Yes | 6c | 442.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 439.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 4c | 436.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c6…7379backed Yes | 3c | 429$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 14c | 417.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853b…eff5backed Yes | 2c | 408.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?this page
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.