TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6e11…b846

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+55.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.7%+$27
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,156.8
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$53.57
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$81
Missing Epstein cell footage released in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+460.4%+$313.85
Will Trump say "Million" "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$12.89
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,501Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+46.7%+$1,167.85
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.76
Will Donald Trump issue 40 or more executive orders in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.52
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+946.6%+$198.98
Will Donald Trump issue 30-34 executive orders in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.15
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$320.81
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.2
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$634Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+95.3%+$604.05
Will Trump suspend habeas corpus before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.3
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.59
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.03
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+36.4%+$11.15
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+488.2%+$314.22
All 19 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT1811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.82
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.8
Will CR win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.52
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+1,454.8%+$211.32
Lee Jae-myung arrested in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$265.52
Will Gnangbo Kacou win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.25
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$90.02
Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.58
Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/VHP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.86
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.87
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.78
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$193.5
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.7
Will Lee Jae-myung win Gyeongnam State (경상남도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.81
Will Lee Jae-myung win Gwangju (광주) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.46
Will Lee Jae-myung win Ulsan (울산) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$30.96
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
All 18 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-86.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.98
Will Russia invade Finland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+62.6%+$204.1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$166.68
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$269.82
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$726Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$726.06
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.93
Will Russia capture Mykolaivka before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$183.77
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$279.5
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.23
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.33
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$162.12
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$4.6
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$155.43
Will Israel annex Lebanese territory before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.24
Will Israel annex Syrian territory before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.3
Will Israel annex Gazan territory before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.77
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+821%+$1,410.11
Israel strikes Iranian oil in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+70.7%+$88.66
Iran strike on Israel by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$950Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+42%+$398.75
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.56
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-67%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Sep 13, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.41
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$118.21
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy guilty of all charges?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Xi talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$969Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+102.2%+$991.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will XRP reach $2.2 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$331.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gold Cup Final Winner: USA vs. Mexico backed USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$105.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,902Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$1,902.39
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.