Us Politics · resolved market
Missing Epstein cell footage released in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99df13ef531c4f8ce052a69a3f8e138d83f72a235207b9fd74b0b24ae864093d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 40c | 7,919$3,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,780.68 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 45c | 3,601$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.45 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 14c | 2,618$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239.13 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 15c | 2,500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…2aa2backed Yes | 17c | 1,183$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 1c | 1,105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 16c | 1,038$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.96 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 999.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.8 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 18c | 601$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.94 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 422.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.24 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 18c | 382.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 15c | 310.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.34 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3436…4ff0backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 191$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.83 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67e…6b44backed Yes | 9c | 170$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +181%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed No | 65c | 130$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 17c | 125.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 16c | 116.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 50c | 69.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 61c | 18.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.