TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x551e…b0e0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
278
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 61 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST6439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$110
Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$294.32
Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$137.8
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,588Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+121.5%+$1,929.52
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$7,487Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+171.3%+$12,823.68
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$382.5
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$133.9
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$258.24
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$32.62
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: GL-PvdA vs CDAbacked GL-PvdA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+122.2%+$550
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$110
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$535Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$535.31
Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,133Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+94%+$2,004.25
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,317Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+110.6%+$2,563.5
Will the Progress Party (FrP) win 22% or more of vote in Norwegian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13,219Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+132.9%+$17,568.29
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 78 and 81%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,374Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+102%+$2,421.33
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 81 and 84%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$192.61
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 75 and 78%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,677Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+55.9%+$1,496.16
Will the Labour Party (Ap) win 27% or more of vote in Norwegian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Will the red bloc win between 78 and 80 seats in the Norwegian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.25
Will the blue bloc win 90 or seats in the Norwegian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$502Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$501.99
Will the red bloc win less than 78 seats in the Norwegian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.7
Will the Red Bloc win by 0–3 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.01
Will the Blue Bloc win by 1–4 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the Blue Bloc win by 5–8 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.04
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+52.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+769.6%+$1,770
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$154.74
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32.62
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$3,859Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,859.19
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$270
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$184.5
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$715Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+39.9%+$284.99
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$813Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+32.6%+$265.42
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$65
Prince Andrew loses Duke of York title by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.21
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,665Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,664.99
Missing Epstein cell footage released in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$2,124.99
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.98
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$170
Will Andrew Cuomo win Queens in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+784.9%+$2,177.48
Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,781Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+897.1%+$15,976.38
Will Brad Lander finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$19.38
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$3,899Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+608.3%+$23,716.42
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+159.1%+$632.01
Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,453Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+56.1%+$815.67
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$155.91
Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$717Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$716.55
Will Trump endorse Conor McGregor for President of Ireland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$10
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+67.4%+$289.8
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT4126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$462Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$462.16
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,255.25
Foreign intervention in Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$156.8
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+203%+$670
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14,818Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+135.3%+$20,049.89
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$472.03
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100,056Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.1%+$49,133.29
Will Israel strike Iraq by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$340.76
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,120
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,874Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,874.05
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$7,422Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,421.61
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,100
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,208Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,208.38
Israel x Syria security deal before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,730Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,730
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,110Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,110
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$7,204Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+77%+$5,550.59
Will Israel strike Syria on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.11
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+733.3%+$2,199.99
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$64,682Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+41.2%+$26,643.1
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$7,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,299.98
Iran strike on Qatar today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,607Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,607.46
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$22,598Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$22,598.25
Iran x Israel conflict ends by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$485.16
Israel strike on Iran on June 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,083Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,083.25
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,911Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,911.29
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT3327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$4,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,900
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3)backed LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$31
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$351.07
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1)backed G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$28,641Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+225.3%+$64,540.3
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs FlyQuest (BO1)backed Team Secret Whales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,832.83
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$8,670Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,669.54
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12,913Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,913.2
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1)backed Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$5,288Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,288.2
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1)backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16,234Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+267.5%+$43,420.04
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$9,744Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+234.5%+$22,853.31
LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1)backed 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14,690Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,690.1
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO1)backed Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10,502Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10,502.23
LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Secret Whales (BO1)backed Team Secret Whales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$7,498Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,498.29
LoL: FlyQuest vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO1)backed Vivo Keyd Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$5,582Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,581.98
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1)backed G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1)backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$7,002Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+211.1%+$14,778.51
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$387Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+30.4%+$117.45
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.Gbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$4,314Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,314
League of Legends: Gen.G vs. T1backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,104Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,104.29
League of Legends: T1 vs. Gen.Gbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25,895Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25,894.84
League of Legends: AG.AL vs. Gen.Gbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17,241Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+64.2%+$11,073.12
League of Legends: T1 vs. AG.ALbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$9,462Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,462.36
League of Legends: Gen.G vs. FlyQuestbacked FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$133.99
League of Legends: Movistar KOI vs. T1backed Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$580.6
League of Legends: Cloud9 vs. FURIAbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$21,171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$21,171.42
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2055%11 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,561Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.1%+$769.7
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,217Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+215.3%+$4,774.54
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$602Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+57.6%+$346.96
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$19,583Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+284.2%+$55,660.14
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,149Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,149.22
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$8,810Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,809.79
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,936Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+29.2%+$566
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$117.05
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,499Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+45.1%+$676.12
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$967Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+158.6%+$1,533.31
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,765Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,764.77
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,317Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+36.9%+$854.32
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,514Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,513.85
North Korean soldier caught in Ukraine before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$4,957Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+75.5%+$3,744.75
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,012Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+65.9%+$666.79
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18,722Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$18,722.32
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$7,914Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+268%+$21,210.76
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.23per pick45cpaid+53.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$5,250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$2,250
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,357Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+70.8%+$2,375.42
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+112.8%+$30.27
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+459%+$831.78
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+64.1%+$11.1
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+170.7%+$614.8
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+406%+$314.81
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$89.85
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$222.6
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,018Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,018.42
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$725Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$725
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20,722Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20,722.3
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$702Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+39.2%+$275.63
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,735Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.9%+$1,265
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$541Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$541.18
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$925Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+27%+$249.81
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,359Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+46.2%+$628.35
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,751Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+90.8%+$1,589.4
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT+58.9%+$98.15
All 19 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid+11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$128
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$437.53
OpenAI social app in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$192
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$209.03
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$6,822Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,821.66
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$785Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$785
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$598.34
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$317.3
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+710.8%+$1,659.84
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$390
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+65.5%+$83
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,748Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+45.2%+$1,693.23
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$878Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+42.9%+$376.26
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20.6
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$82,573Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+39.4%+$32,566.27
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,900
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$325.71
All 8 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+139.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Buccaneers vs. Ramsbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13,582Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$13,581.94
Jaguars vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$5,149Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$5,148.62
Steelers vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,550Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$3,450
Chiefs vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,096Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+534.5%+$11,203.99
All 4 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$330
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$11.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$3,300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+203%+$6,700
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,542Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,542.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will egg prices drop this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.53
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.