Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f6be2f27e0a4b96c3e9c9bda2dde5079fdb4a8cee201be2b1239e9ba970ba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 79c | 5,996$4,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.32 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 39c | 4,375$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,690.25 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 19c | 3,930$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,182.64 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 51c | 3,853$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.98 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 30c | 2,338$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.86 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 32c | 1,914$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.54 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 70c | 1,465$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.44 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 75c | 1,443$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.95 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 61c | 1,330$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.71 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 45c | 1,086$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.58 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 18c | 1,002$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.85 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 45c | 963.01$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.83 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 962.85$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.23 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 30c | 810$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.4 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 33c | 748.1$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.72 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 53c | 690.05$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.95 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 48c | 654.99$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed No | 50c | 594.66$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.07 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 594.37$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.67 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…c80fbacked Yes | 19c | 524.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +424.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 3c | 479.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 424.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 15c | 397.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.72 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 22c | 385.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 47c | 337.96$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 25c | 334.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.59 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 44c | 319$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.11 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 61c | 308$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…e813backed Yes | 42c | 295.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 65c | 276.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 19c | 255.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 61c | 235.44$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 73c | 231.78$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 73c | 228.95$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 27c | 205.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 57c | 204.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 12c | 201.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 63c | 194.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 165.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 9c | 163.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 76c | 157.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 153.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…974cbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 10c | 148.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 32c | 117.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…1aa0backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 44c | 67.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 28c | 66.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 42c | 62.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…6ea9backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 71c | 35.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ac…6bedbacked Yes | 70c | 21.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross less than $60m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.