Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48b160cb11c563dde21d9279c165165f4522fdbc87be73ad7255ed510c3ab95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02b2…7ee8backed Yes | 0c | 4,583$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 11c | 4,115$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.04 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 16c | 4,098$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.74 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 3c | 3,877$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 21c | 2,677$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.5 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 29c | 1,974$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.46 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 20c | 1,764$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.11 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 15c | 1,751$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.03 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 25c | 900$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 21c | 887.82$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.11 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 23c | 880.84$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.62 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 14c | 843.29$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked Yes | 3c | 779.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 25c | 770$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 20c | 642$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 525.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 10c | 477.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 74c | 385.68$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 10c | 329$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 319.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 314.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 39c | 309$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 29c | 299.14$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 286$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 16c | 250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 22c | 206.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 56c | 205.54$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…fed9backed Yes | 13c | 192.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 9c | 181.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 13c | 177.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 79c | 171.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 153$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 29c | 141$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…bc49backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 32c | 87.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…64f5backed Yes | 16c | 86.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…818bbacked Yes | 18c | 82.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…9917backed Yes | 25c | 80.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…e813backed Yes | 53c | 74.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 20c | 69.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…734abacked Yes | 16c | 63.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 22c | 56.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 52.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 22.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross less than $60m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.