Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc5769ec9a6848a3b47837aee550afe1b0ad6f653a951e7b23641fabcfb48f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $303,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 38,891$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.56 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…376dbacked Yes | 0c | 31,840$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 10c | 30,155$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,893.99 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…7b12backed Yes | 5c | 19,311$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 8c | 15,063$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 13,664$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 2c | 12,997$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.36 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 0c | 9,969$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb1…3020backed Yes | 0c | 9,698$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…c8e8backed Yes | 10c | 8,700$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 77c | 6,274$4,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes | 15c | 5,617$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 75c | 4,482$3,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.37 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…a4d4backed Yes | 6c | 4,106$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 2c | 4,042$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b2…7ee8backed Yes | 1c | 3,673$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 71c | 3,044$2,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.94 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92de…5221backed Yes | 2c | 3,036$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked No | 72c | 2,216$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.86 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 50c | 2,150$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…bc49backed Yes | 3c | 1,912$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…cd9cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,900$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,363$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.19 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 74c | 1,284$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.87 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,262$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,148$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,123$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 23c | 1,018$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.69 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…c1e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8b…e143backed Yes | 1c | 830.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…c87cbacked Yes | 10c | 816.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 795.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…cbcdbacked Yes | 20c | 679.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 31c | 620.73$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.43 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 5c | 591.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 3c | 550$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 7c | 515.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 25c | 486.34$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 11c | 403.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed No | 50c | 401.18$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.09 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 385.41$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 69c | 385$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…c4abbacked Yes | 35c | 384.62$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 70c | 383.43$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed No | 75c | 270$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 5c | 228.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 29c | 206.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 29c | 135$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…2230backed Yes | 14c | 106.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 26c | 105.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 34c | 94.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed No | 68c | 92.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 90.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…0c09backed Yes | 32c | 89.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…ddc8backed Yes | 24c | 84.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c19…4187backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9708…e1a0backed Yes | 28c | 72.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 76c | 72.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 35c | 70.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 31c | 67.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…f25dbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…c8f0backed Yes | 33c | 59.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 79c | 59.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd825…a76ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 29.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 75c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross less than $60m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.