Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a1c76b9fd3a4b22205132fdcac5565c29fe9eba464e9c552f9f200f359d20fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 12,490$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.61 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 6c | 11,254$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…c8e8backed Yes | 2c | 9,305$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 12c | 8,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.25 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…2c88backed Yes | 0c | 6,460$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d47…30aabacked Yes | 1c | 5,714$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,843$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 1c | 3,251$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 4c | 3,176$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…7b12backed Yes | 6c | 3,150$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…bfd0backed Yes | 1c | 2,881$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb1…3020backed Yes | 0c | 2,830$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,829$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,575$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 18c | 1,564$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.54 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 1c | 1,563$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b2…7ee8backed Yes | 1c | 1,482$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…a4d4backed Yes | 25c | 1,208$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…3ffabacked Yes | 2c | 1,056$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 16c | 900$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.58 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 6c | 833.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 826.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 18c | 773.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 16c | 549.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 235.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…a3cbbacked Yes | 5c | 230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 6c | 205.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 21c | 199.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.88 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 24c | 164.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…818bbacked Yes | 9c | 161.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 18c | 141.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…2230backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…0c09backed Yes | 22c | 80.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 16c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 27c | 55.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x337b…7623backed Yes | 19c | 52.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross less than $60m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.