Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross less than $60m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e81c5deb760c6614efbdc08dd2d21e309aa71f247b75222c9b37aadd3e7bf45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 12,351$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 19c | 8,174$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.97 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 6,177$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 19c | 4,823$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.83 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 15c | 3,849$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.28 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 19c | 3,789$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.38 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…83debacked Yes | 3c | 3,444$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 8c | 2,747$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.21 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6835backed Yes | 18c | 2,708$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…3ffabacked Yes | 1c | 2,135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 8c | 1,981$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 19c | 1,867$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.31 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,519$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 75c | 1,500$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 2c | 1,327$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 79c | 1,003$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.23 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 975.21$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked No | 72c | 816.13$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb1…3020backed Yes | 2c | 801$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 7c | 769.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 609.19$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…c87cbacked Yes | 4c | 568.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 21c | 555$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Yes | 29c | 516.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 20c | 511.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 77c | 455.97$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 70c | 379.26$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 79c | 362$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…7621backed Yes | 4c | 348.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 22c | 291.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 6c | 239$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 19c | 222$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 16c | 207.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 167.7$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 8c | 156$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 18c | 150.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 44c | 143.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 28c | 136.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 74c | 125$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…becdbacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 69c | 94.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 43c | 47.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…67b1backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked No | 70c | 28.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross less than $60m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.