TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0978…00e6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
140
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST3151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$17.92
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$302.1
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+152.9%+$302.3
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5.5m and 7m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$87.85
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$30.8
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$597.51
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,922Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+33.9%+$1,329.1
Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 15m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$39.55
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20.54
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 23m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$49.2
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $78m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$47
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80-84?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+32.7%+$12.33
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 75?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$31.29
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+40.2%+$25.71
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.93
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $20m or more but less than $23m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+261.4%+$392.43
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $32m or more opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$4.2
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross less than $20m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$176.15
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 55-59?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+214.1%+$171.78
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross less than $60m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.88
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 84?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT+105.6%+$43.14
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.7
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+92.4%+$291.47
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT2650%13 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$100
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+39.5%+$85
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$45.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.36
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$52.1
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$85.89
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$78
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$313.2
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.63
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+47.1%+$16
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$22
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.59
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+33.4%+$152.62
Khamenei seen in public before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$31.7
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,748Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+26.2%+$457.72
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+126.2%+$218.18
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.36
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Musiclast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT2540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will France win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.1
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.56
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.2
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.43
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$485.5
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+89.4%+$178.79
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.72
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+410.2%+$321.6
Will France win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.72
Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$530.4
Will Lithuania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$5.5
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+150%+$60
Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$548Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+27.7%+$152
Will Spain finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$132
Will Greece qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$88.2
Will Luxembourg qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+39.7%+$114.42
Will Denmark qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$260
Will Cyprus qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$78
Will San Marino qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$46
All 25 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.25per pick57cpaid-57.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+33.3%+$65
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$198
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,339Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+44.7%+$597.83
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$228.13
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$725Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$725.25
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.5
Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$72
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.8
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$5.5
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+37%+$13.5
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$245.88
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.7
Will Elon apologize to Trump before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$72
Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+39.3%+$14.1
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "DOGE" 5+ times during the press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+27.3%+$70.8
All 19 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$23.33
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+109.6%+$39.74
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.95
Will Jensen Huang say "TSMC" during NVIDIA keynote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+35.1%+$10.4
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.94
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$26.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+100%+$23.47
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$10.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$14.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$160
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.