Movies · resolved market
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe6122883c86ae4f7a290abde8fe9fb4d0a044ab5a7fffca089ef1c8b4ef1b3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,451,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,022,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,451,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 49,610$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.26 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 35c | 47,035$16,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,294.79 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 42,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 41,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 67c | 36,189$24,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,077.65 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 2c | 34,734$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes | 2c | 30,911$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 27,894$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3c53backed Yes | 1c | 27,833$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed Yes | 3c | 26,586$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes | 10c | 25,000$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,624.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…0a15backed Yes | 11c | 22,571$2,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked Yes | 0c | 20,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 20,235$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…9afabacked Yes | 0c | 18,053$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…6161backed Yes | 0c | 17,965$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…5c36backed Yes | 3c | 16,672$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 15,905$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.36 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 15,784$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.32 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…fe91backed Yes | 0c | 15,118$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 4c | 14,803$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 22c | 14,525$3,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,172.93 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 3c | 14,266$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.59 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Yes | 5c | 12,934$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…f65cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,260$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dad…3cd4backed Yes | 0c | 10,407$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,115$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x144c…50fcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,861$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked No | 74c | 9,181$6,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,343.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…0082backed Yes | 4c | 9,083$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0eb…e702backed Yes | 0c | 8,978$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 4c | 8,921$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.31 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 5c | 8,500$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.89 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 5c | 8,251$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.83 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cb…ecb2backed Yes | 0c | 8,180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 0c | 8,092$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 6c | 7,836$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.09 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 3c | 7,279$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.74 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 6,920$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…dc94backed Yes | 4c | 6,887$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 6,772$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.45 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 6,726$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.54 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 6,631$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.66 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 7c | 6,623$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.08 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 18c | 6,221$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.59 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…c28fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,179$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b7…1b4ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 5,891$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 5,515$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…5d38backed Yes | 1c | 5,515$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 7c | 5,398$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.86 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,153$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.56 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…e809backed Yes | 6c | 5,133$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,028$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…1cb7backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 4,992$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…4d88backed Yes | 3c | 4,990$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7c…5399backed Yes | 8c | 4,880$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 3c | 4,547$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.3 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,466$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.1 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 3c | 4,217$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 3,828$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.83 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 0c | 3,709$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes | 3c | 3,700$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…5a51backed Yes | 2c | 3,650$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e07…9ecebacked Yes | 4c | 3,531$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,496$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 3c | 3,446$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,116$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…d380backed Yes | 4c | 3,027$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 3c | 3,022$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 1c | 2,938$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…9032backed Yes | 1c | 2,921$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…6459backed Yes | 9c | 2,869$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…ef55backed Yes | 2c | 2,809$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…4a6dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,661$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes | 14c | 2,646$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 3c | 2,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9f…b918backed Yes | 4c | 2,490$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 3c | 2,432$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…b8e5backed Yes | 7c | 2,424$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…d823backed Yes | 3c | 2,293$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,277$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…7216backed Yes | 3c | 2,140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed Yes | 5c | 2,084$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 1c | 2,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 3c | 2,027$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd4…8844backed Yes | 2c | 1,861$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 3c | 1,835$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 5c | 1,676$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,665$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5d…394cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,655$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 41c | 1,599$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.19 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…5240backed Yes | 3c | 1,490$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 1,482$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.73 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 1,450$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?this page
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.