TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8b32…b1fd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Cricket, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Cricket at 53 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,845Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$655.19
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$403.79
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17,339Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$17,338.84
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$2,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$2,624.78
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17,447Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$17,446.81
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,156Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+25.9%+$1,333.66
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$30.8
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,986Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+41%+$1,224.55
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$477.12
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$650
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$670Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+49.3%+$330
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,528Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,528.14
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$4,209Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$4,208.7
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,028Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$2,027.8
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$3,116Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$3,116.28
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?backed Avatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$210
All 16 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Cricket — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Giantsbacked Lucknow Super Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.09
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs New Zealandbacked New Zealand · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+25.2%+$125.75
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africabacked South Africa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,437Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+69.8%+$1,003.47
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1)backed Pakistan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$160
T20 World Cup: India vs USA (Game 1)backed USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$86
India T20 Series: India vs South Africa (Game 1)backed South Africa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 3)backed South Africa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$90.8
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 2)backed South Africa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+567.9%+$1,275.38
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 1)backed South Africa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$330
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+29.9%+$29.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Shakhove by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+39.3%+$20.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$15.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,916Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,915.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.