TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,915,984
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,993,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,915,984 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 6,257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1490…b7e6backed No0c2,493,878$11,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,339.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No41c1,860,556$767,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767,450.45616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8049…8f36backed No0c1,823,898$3,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,243.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c1,704,247$5,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,112.74150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked No0c1,674,140$3,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,515.87450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No0c1,388,523$2,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,754.64143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x60cf…425cbacked No0c1,265,692$6,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,307.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc955…9ffcbacked No1c1,172,311$8,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,376.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca5…81e9backed No0c1,114,788$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc6…a608backed No0c1,003,868$3,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f7e…59d2backed No5c944,842$43,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,978520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed72…b8b0backed No0c916,020$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c95…7652backed No0c879,900$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No0c824,199$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.22157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No0c762,509$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.0212630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0352…7076backed No0c738,540$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,415.161127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2c3…6ec8backed No0c690,961$3,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,052.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No1c686,686$3,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,755.0320446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c9…369abacked No1c664,953$4,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,765.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd54…3ffebacked No0c641,621$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.9480%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d9…2531backed No0c620,257$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1e4…a595backed No0c579,852$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes79c545,434$431,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114,148.9518425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5e…2f92backed No0c529,977$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f1…bdc6backed No0c507,020$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.871850%9 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked No0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-77.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8a…62c7backed No0c499,390$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b8…32d3backed No0c498,997$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed No0c457,196$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dad…3a7bbacked No0c402,298$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked No3c361,963$10,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,824425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+440.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked No0c329,535$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31cf…4cd0backed No0c306,018$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.14922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked No2c300,000$4,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,628.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3903…e027backed No0c296,721$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27f…5e39backed No0c295,245$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes73c269,569$195,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,783.13540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c6d…ecf2backed No0c261,705$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c6…a110backed No0c258,662$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf90b…cb6cbacked No5c255,986$12,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,775.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba8…4ed9backed No0c254,700$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc1…8a93backed No0c252,260$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ca…6354backed No0c250,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1460…b3ddbacked No0c250,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb06…0840backed No0c250,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed No0c245,892$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.6490%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb30…63b4backed No0c237,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a09…af0fbacked No41c229,536$93,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93,093.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x768b…de48backed No1c222,619$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.471010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-86.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f77…4de7backed No1c213,301$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c86…cd2bbacked No4c209,363$7,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,714.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa364…792ebacked No1c203,685$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes73c196,524$144,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,460.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f50…1a67backed No0c195,354$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497c…eccbbacked No0c194,718$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27b…f4e8backed No0c189,884$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dc1…44e2backed No0c188,170$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe507…ab17backed No0c182,967$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73fc…0494backed No0c180,900$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18ba…4b78backed No0c175,419$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+100.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe38…f858backed No0c172,737$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d4…e389backed No0c171,653$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes79c170,370$134,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,245.618033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4a…c69ebacked No0c170,242$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed No0c168,420$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…b069backed No0c166,333$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9b…a35bbacked No0c165,400$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked Yes67c160,647$108,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,269.342524%6 W · 19 L-10.0wins-0.40per pick64cpaid-66.7%equal weight28-0.20 edge/pick
0x0861…c24cbacked No1c157,244$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e3b…d481backed No2c157,130$3,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,523.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76bc…3148backed No0c157,000$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbca…3b1ebacked No0c154,752$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed No7c151,040$10,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,625.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked No22c150,161$32,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,443.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc8…cbb7backed No0c148,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6512…78c9backed No0c145,437$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc1…dfcdbacked No1c145,000$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.651030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ef…5ba1backed No1c144,241$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.58110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x833d…c788backed No1c142,833$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+275%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x082f…ce74backed No0c140,115$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes61c138,936$85,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,697.0519236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes65c138,841$90,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,217.356145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed No0c136,470$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.47425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20c…e2bdbacked No2c135,228$3,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,356.841154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf396…ea64backed No5c134,965$7,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,053.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ab0…74a5backed No0c134,088$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d9e…0bdfbacked No0c133,930$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9969…09fabacked No0c133,333$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa8c…5baebacked No0c132,278$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930e…1314backed No0c127,703$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f10…1899backed No0c126,750$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3082…db43backed No9c124,854$11,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,788.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed Yes77c124,089$95,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,018.64560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f8…ac7bbacked No0c123,902$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.671118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-74.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x978b…b2febacked No0c123,330$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba4…8c4fbacked No6c123,235$8,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,001.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95a5…a523backed No0c122,087$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed No1c118,935$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb8…1f6cbacked No2c117,194$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,747.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.