TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$991,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$713,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $991,674 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x993c…6787backed Yes4c119,801$5,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,240.8619236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes4c70,239$2,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,878.274850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c27,333$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.99166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes2c25,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62032626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Yes0c21,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c16,155$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.9233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes6c15,727$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.8718425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes12c13,278$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.6112630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes1c13,217$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.653935.9%14 W · 25 L+9.5wins+0.24per pick12cpaid+185%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124955.1%27 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf109…0ed8backed Yes7c10,686$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee50…7ed6backed No79c10,000$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Yes6c9,534$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Yes2c9,229$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x636b…6915backed Yes5c8,646$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78cf…6481backed Yes8c7,955$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb9d4…2b0dbacked Yes6c6,310$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes16c6,305$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.681741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-39.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e04…cb9ebacked Yes0c6,150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c5,591$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22712910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf492…3061backed Yes8c5,380$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.151136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbcf…2ef2backed Yes1c5,249$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c5,120$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.3955618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d41…9316backed Yes12c4,800$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Yes9c4,593$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked Yes3c4,400$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.41513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd68c…fcb2backed Yes20c3,980$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.5570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes10c3,925$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.264531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes4c3,843$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.722119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes2c3,664$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.93210%0 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No76c3,571$2,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.141346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c5…4302backed No77c3,519$2,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked No76c3,272$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.478739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec32…1f91backed Yes5c3,121$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes17c3,038$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.4620446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes5c3,037$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15037844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b6e…6fa7backed Yes24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x605a…4576backed Yes4c2,906$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes7c2,857$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes12c2,500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x887f…a4cbbacked Yes27c2,455$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.161136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09f9…a73cbacked Yes6c2,427$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.58616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-74.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b02…c463backed Yes1c2,318$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes3c2,311$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.611921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x335d…8f03backed Yes5c2,300$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes5c2,300$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.14139%16 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+69.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes9c2,279$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.33514.3%5 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-64.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes3c2,127$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5116943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f82…e964backed Yes3c2,093$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16018725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked No75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5004443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid+3.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a1…3c87backed Yes23c2,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e9…f89dbacked Yes4c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f5…b7e4backed Yes22c1,954$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.46633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…cb0ebacked Yes12c1,658$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x897d…90c9backed Yes12c1,624$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ef…acb1backed Yes4c1,599$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5e…9245backed Yes5c1,591$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes4c1,524$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.975129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2e7…40c2backed Yes15c1,500$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1919…351cbacked Yes4c1,450$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes5c1,351$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3519435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41c3…759bbacked Yes4c1,339$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…e546backed Yes1c1,330$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c6…7fcbbacked Yes5c1,319$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes8c1,307$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.493831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4543…eb7ebacked Yes2c1,288$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c1,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b3…340dbacked Yes24c1,238$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x428b…e896backed Yes6c1,216$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes23c1,200$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.998042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb911…a649backed Yes3c1,200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.62326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes5c1,179$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6621022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7a…d37ebacked Yes1c1,101$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.831926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96f7…92ddbacked Yes4c1,091$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b0d…400abacked Yes1c1,090$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e9…f6efbacked Yes4c1,078$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf25…35aabacked Yes4c1,078$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9820…fdbbbacked Yes4c1,078$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadef…8a52backed Yes4c1,078$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes5c1,073$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.875837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8b…5945backed Yes5c1,020$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511540%6 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+124.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d44…966fbacked No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b2…639ebacked Yes29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37c…8ce5backed Yes4c960.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0cb…a927backed Yes4c960.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8e…776ebacked No77c904.97$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.971258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1961…d240backed Yes4c857.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c7…5510backed Yes17c855.06$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.631675%12 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+105.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes2c834.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11277.4%2 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a3…e2abbacked Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec5…d21ebacked Yes6c830.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1869…4f1ebacked Yes24c829.99$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x634a…1a13backed Yes4c817.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No76c800$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19211936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed Yes23c799.98$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.992259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.