TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,083,716
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,174,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,083,716 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2877…6404backed No0c122,080$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…b72cbacked No7c88,487$5,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,892.37475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb4…517cbacked No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No10c30,989$3,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,243.354850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1a09…af0fbacked No12c20,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0baf…409cbacked No0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked Yes76c19,347$14,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,706.152524%6 W · 19 L-10.0wins-0.40per pick64cpaid-66.7%equal weight28-0.20 edge/pick
0xb49e…31d7backed No6c12,063$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbab4…3572backed No0c11,980$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a8…e61fbacked No9c11,852$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed No7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3510…2492backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No9c9,695$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.0818033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d20…4843backed No7c8,888$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed No8c8,653$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94df…a26ebacked No4c8,036$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f8…ac7bbacked No11c7,270$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.461118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-74.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No6c6,276$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.577128.2%20 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No23c5,820$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.492119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No10c4,691$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.114135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e86…9a71backed No14c4,643$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55b…bc5abacked No22c4,606$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae1…1f16backed No24c4,412$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x647b…5750backed No0c4,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No8c4,029$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.6319236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No25c3,981$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.818445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e6…cd8abacked No25c3,981$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1490…b7e6backed No1c3,700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes77c3,515$2,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.523551.4%18 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c3,500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2812910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No14c3,360$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.73345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa50b…74b2backed No30c3,348$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed No5c3,319$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed No9c3,026$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.421050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9f9…9fafbacked No3c2,980$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No3c2,774$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0418425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3291…e502backed No12c2,749$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe86c…bb51backed No7c2,737$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…7e8dbacked No16c2,552$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No5c2,497$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.864240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3838…2c6fbacked No11c2,495$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.22911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-85.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed Yes76c2,447$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.361553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e15…fa36backed No8c2,354$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ef…ff3dbacked No28c2,300$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No9c2,222$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.4215124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a9…92d5backed No18c2,165$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No8c2,100$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.383514.3%5 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-64.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No10c2,082$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.133961.5%24 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No6c2,060$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8732626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No4c2,008$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.875832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ca…48f9backed No10c2,004$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.790%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed No13c1,990$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.31233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed No4c1,871$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-76.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xee21…6939backed No7c1,800$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb19…21e4backed No29c1,793$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf25d…1326backed No11c1,665$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe70a…8084backed No28c1,566$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1376…9d1bbacked No17c1,538$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20c7…347fbacked No2c1,520$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb99…4daebacked No14c1,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5df6…1849backed No20c1,470$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x186d…01e0backed No7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes80c1,400$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2866346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ca…e686backed No7c1,396$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x150c…0e0fbacked No23c1,355$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a37…c99cbacked No8c1,333$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8886…3913backed No11c1,301$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c5…bd4ebacked No12c1,300$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7560%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed No16c1,263$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.872850%14 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5798…1a60backed No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked No11c1,218$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.472138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x674b…fbdabacked No9c1,178$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe4f…fb18backed No9c1,167$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dbc…7032backed No12c1,151$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…e44fbacked No11c1,091$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84c…da71backed No9c1,063$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e00…2fe0backed No30c1,016$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.77425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-64.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No13c1,012$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9611031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4014…a2edbacked Yes74c1,007$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.191464.3%9 W · 5 L+6.0wins+0.43per pick21cpaid+1,100.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No5c1,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b04…3a41backed No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb905…1640backed No27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52a2…376fbacked No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6f…4da4backed Yes77c999.98$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb952…a3d1backed No21c980.69$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No7c978.4$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes76c953.71$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.526038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed No4c947.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.344531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4266…5305backed No19c945.81$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c0e…5ef7backed No8c920$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b36…473bbacked No10c912.51$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No7c839.12$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.48827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a7…9ea8backed No10c833.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1603444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed Yes74c799.98$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.993964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65cc…02dcbacked No33c772.06$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf274…1ed7backed No13c753.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes67c745.41$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.3623639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No9c675.78$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.552548%12 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.